In one day, the market surged by 10,000 points; in two days, Bitcoin rose by 20,000 points, reaching 95,000. It seems Bitcoin is gearing up to personally enter the Meme arena!
Apart from Bitcoin, the coins that Trump has called for to be included in the cryptocurrency strategic reserves, such as XRP, SOL, and ADA, have all surged dramatically. XRP nearly doubled, ADA soared by 52%, and even SOL, which has faced a lot of negative news and substantial unlocking, surged over 20%! ETH also jumped to 2500, but an hour later, the entire network saw liquidations amounting to 273 million dollars, including 66.43 million dollars in long liquidations and 207 million dollars in short liquidations.
CZ posted on X, stating that the market is clearly dominated by 'U.S. crypto assets' (US Coins), which have driven the development of crypto. He is pleased to see any progress in cryptocurrency adoption, which benefits the overall industry, and encourages continued building.
Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, posted on X about the changes in Coinbase's premium index and stated that the current rise in Bitcoin is driven by whales on Coinbase.
It has been proven that as long as the market can be dominated or manipulated by some force, there will certainly be suspicions of insider trading. On Hyperliquid, someone actually went long on BTC and ETH with 50x leverage ahead of time, making hundreds of millions in long positions, with the liquidation line closely following the market price. ETH only needs a fluctuation of 42U to be liquidated. However, miraculously, there was no liquidation; instead, profits of several million dollars were realized. Some lament that he missed out on billions of dollars in profits, but I think this might actually be his brilliance—to take profit and not push things to the limit.
However, the situation is not too optimistic because altcoins have not followed the rise.
Aside from the few coins Trump shouted about surging, other mainstream altcoins have not really increased, far from the typical rise ratio seen when altcoins follow BTC. This makes it feel like this is still a localized rebound artificially boosted by the president's use of his position and public opinion, making it hard to drive the overall crypto market's recovery. This suggests that once the fervor of Trump's speeches fades, Bitcoin will likely slowly decline back down. Some believe that if it can stabilize above 94,000, there is a chance to return above 100,000 and start a bull market. If it cannot hold above 94,000, it is likely to drop and seek support around 70,000 again. If this really happens, it may trap and liquidate a large number of people who chased the highs.
There are already opinions suggesting that Trump is only relying on rhetoric to boost prices without any substantial actions. For example, Arthur Hayes stated that the crypto reserves are merely talk now; the U.S. has no budget to increase its holdings of Bitcoin or altcoins.
Arthur Hayes commented on X regarding the 'cryptocurrency reserves', stating: 'There’s nothing new here, just empty talk. Let’s wait until the crypto working group gets congressional approval to borrow money or re-evaluate gold prices. Without these, they don’t have the money to buy Bitcoin and altcoins.'
The founder of Taproot Wizards believes that proposing a 'strategic reserve for altcoins' is a typical negotiation strategy of Trump.
Chris Burniske, a partner at Placeholder VC, retweeted the views of Udi Wertheimer, the founder of Taproot Wizards, on social media.
Udi Wertheimer stated that, so far, the best interpretation of the strategic reserves is that it is merely a typical Trump negotiation strategy. To achieve an actual reserve, Trump must persuade Congress; he cannot decide on his own. Whenever Trump needs to persuade other stakeholders, he always starts with an absurd proposal, after which he can back down, just like his previous Gaza plan, annexing Canada, and now the ADA strategic reserve. So, in Trump's 'chess language', this means he is telling Congress: if you disagree with the Bitcoin reserve, I will propose even crazier conditions.
Peter Schiff, an economist unfriendly to crypto, pointed out: 'What is the reason for the XRP reserves? Why do we need it? I disagree; we have gold reserves, and Bitcoin is digital gold, so let’s just create a Bitcoin reserve.'
Moreover, the recent series of thefts in the crypto space has also posed a threat to the national strategic reserves of cryptocurrencies. The largest theft in history, where hackers stole 499,000 ETH from Bybit, is expected to be laundered in the next day or two. Currently, there are only 60,000 ETH (around 148 million dollars) left in the hacker's address waiting to be laundered. In the past 24 hours, the Bybit hacker has laundered 96,500 ETH. This time, Bybit has mobilized nearly all its connections and resources to intercept the stolen funds; however, all efforts have been in vain. The only thing they can do is watch the hacker slowly launder the money. For the financial ecosystem, the lack of effective means to intercept stolen assets is a significant drawback and flaw.
Therefore, despite this, most people increasingly feel that the effect of such empty calls to boost prices is hard to sustain and do not believe Trump can quickly establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Influenced by Trump's recent statements on cryptocurrency reserves, the probability of 'establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve within 100 days of Trump taking office' on Polymarket has risen to 22%, with betting amounts around 7.74 million dollars. Compared to January 20, the day Trump was sworn in as president, this betting probability briefly rose to 48%. People are gradually becoming calmer.
In summary, my personal opinion is that relying solely on Trump's slogans, calls, and advocacy to rally BTC and the other four coins is unlikely to last without substantial policy implementation. This is especially true for non-mainstream coins like XRP and ADA, which have surged dramatically but have much less presence compared to DOGE, TRX, SUI, AVAX, etc. A pullback is very likely. Therefore, I would choose to reduce positions at highs for safety, but I won't short. In the current situation, one must be wary of Trump's potential tricks; shorting is also dangerous. Once BTC becomes part of the U.S. national strategic reserves, it may trigger a massive rally, and short positions would be disastrous. Even if there's a one in a thousand chance, it's best not to gamble on it.