As institutional investors' interest in digital assets grows, Cardano (ADA) is becoming the focus of investors' attention, indicating that it may usher in a large influx of funds in the future. Since Grayscale announced the submission of the Cardano Spot ETF application on February 11, 2025, the market heat of ADA has risen sharply, triggering widespread discussion in the market.
Cardano’s trading volume has increased by 3.6% in the past 24 hours and has also increased by 12% in the past week. This trend shows that ADA’s price is showing a hint of upward momentum despite the overall market consolidation.
Whale accumulation and the potential of ETFs
Against the backdrop of increasing institutional investor interest, Grayscale's Cardano ETF application undoubtedly injects a strong dose of optimism into Cardano's future. According to Bloomberg, the chances of the Cardano ETF being approved are currently as high as 60%, and the market generally believes that March 27 will be a critical date for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to make a decision. Whether it is approval, rejection, or delay, it will have a significant impact on Cardano's market trends.
At the same time, although Cardano's price experienced a decline last December, the continued accumulation by large investors suggests a market optimism about the future. Even when the price is temporarily in a consolidation phase, institutional investors have clearly been quietly accumulating at lower price levels, which may be laying the groundwork for an upcoming breakthrough. This phenomenon is similar to the upward cycles of mainstream digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum in history and suggests that a similar price trend may be about to unfold.
Technical analysis and historical patterns
From a technical analysis perspective, Cardano's daily chart shows a clear bullish momentum, with prices consistently hitting higher highs, indicating the formation of an upward trend. According to the analysis, the current price movement is somewhat similar to the accumulation phase of altcoins between 2019 and 2020, which was also a key period for the market to lay the groundwork for the bull market in 2021.
Analysis shared by TapTools on its X (formerly Twitter) account pointed out that since 2022, the accumulation phase of ADA has been remarkably similar to the weekly chart trends of previous bull markets. Cardano is currently at the upper limit of the accumulation range, and the likelihood of breaking through the crucial psychological threshold of $1 is continuously increasing. Breaking through $1 would be a major milestone for Cardano, not only attracting more investor attention but also potentially triggering broader market buying.
On-chain data and market trends
Further analysis of on-chain data shows that CryptoWaves indicates Cardano's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from 44 to 55, suggesting that buying pressure is gradually strengthening, while the market is not in an overbought state, providing investors with sufficient signals to further engage. Additionally, data from Santiment indicates that the increase in active wallet addresses for ADA last week coincided with a rise in trading volume, suggesting that network activity is gradually becoming more active. This phenomenon is often associated with positive market sentiment, indicating that Cardano's future prospects are gaining more investor confidence.
Meanwhile, Cardano's Plomin hard fork has also provided its token holders with greater governance power, further boosting its growth expectations. The successful implementation of the Plomin hard fork has brought more decentralized governance opportunities to the network and made Cardano's ecosystem in the blockchain field more complete, attracting more users and investors to participate.
Breaking through $1 and welcoming a bull market rebound
In summary, the outlook for Cardano in the coming weeks is full of potential. The approval of spot ETFs, historical accumulation patterns, and the Plomin hard fork could prompt ADA to break through the key psychological level of $1 and ultimately push the price to challenge higher resistance levels of $3. These factors suggest that Cardano's bull market rebound may not be far off, and the market's reaction will determine whether its price can break through the important threshold of $3.
However, Cardano's rapid rise is not without risks. Although current market sentiment leans bullish, the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market still exists, and any macroeconomic changes or regulatory policy shifts could lead to significant market fluctuations. Therefore, investors must remain vigilant when considering Cardano's future potential and should not blindly follow market sentiment, but rather make informed decisions based on their own risk tolerance.
Overall, Cardano (ADA) is at a critical turning point, and with increasing participation from institutional investors, the price of ADA is expected to break through the current price range, ushering in a new bull market cycle.