According to Odaily, Federal Reserve Board member Waller had a busy day on May 23. Before the market opened, he expressed skepticism about a rate cut in July, stating that he would need to see 'several months of good inflation data' before considering a rate cut. This is not good news for those who still hope for a rate cut in July. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and his team wrote, 'There are only two months of inflation data from now to the July meeting, and the threshold of 'several months of data' indicates that the threshold for driving a rate cut based solely on inflation is quite high.'
However, analysts have not changed their basic view that the first rate cut will take place in July, with a total of two rate cuts in 2024. They wrote, 'First, Waller's views may not represent the entire FOMC. In addition, the labor market data has slowed down in recent months and is expected to soften further in the coming months. Coupled with the moderate improvement in inflation data, this should persuade the FOMC to start policy normalization earlier than Waller's timetable.'
