According to Odaily Planet Daily, EMC Labs, a crypto asset investment research institution, said that although the absolute number of Bitcoin's fourth halving is not as good as before, it may actually account for more than 30% of the effective circulation, which will cause a significant supply deflation effect in the next 4-year cycle. EMC Labs calculated that the absolute number of BTC's fourth halving on April 20 was 164,000 pieces/year, and the halving number 4 years ago was 328,000 pieces/year. However, because the number of BTC on centralized exchanges that determine BTC's short-term pricing power has dropped from 3.06 million in the previous cycle to 2.29 million, the annual reduction in production accounts for 7% of short-term liquidity, which has not decreased proportionally compared with 10% in the previous cycle.
The total reduction in production over the past four years accounts for 28% of short-term liquidity. Considering that the number of coins held by centralized exchanges will continue to decline, this figure can actually account for more than 30%. The proportion of long-term holders has increased by 14% compared to four years ago. With the combination of these two factors, the supply deflation caused by this halving is obvious. EMC Labs said that this halving has reduced the annual inflation rate of BTC to 0.8%, and it is believed that the law of ushering in a super bull market within 18 months after the halving will still reappear.
