According to CryptoPotato, two of the largest banks in the United States, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, are advising cryptocurrency investors to exercise caution ahead of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. Analysts predict that this halving may not follow the patterns of previous cycles. In a recent report, JPMorgan suggested that Bitcoin's price is unlikely to increase after the halving, and may instead continue the downward trend that began earlier this month.
JPMorgan's perspective aligns with its consistently bearish forecasts throughout the year, remaining unswayed by the growing optimism surrounding Bitcoin spot ETFs or the halving. Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated, 'We do not expect bitcoin price increases post-halving as it has already been priced in. In fact, we see a downside for the bitcoin price post-halving for several reasons.' The analysts used the price of gold as a reference point, arguing that Bitcoin's price should only be $45,000 on a volatility-adjusted basis, indicating that its current market price of $63,700 is significantly overbought. This view is supported by a continuing long bias in Bitcoin futures open interest and a lack of venture funding in the crypto industry this year.
Goldman Sachs, in a note to clients last week, acknowledged that Bitcoin's past three halving cycles have resulted in substantial price increases in the aftermath, although the exact time it took to reach a new all-time high afterward has varied greatly. This cycle appears even more different: Bitcoin already topped its previous cycle’s all-time high above $69,000 in March, one month before the halving even occurred. The analysts warned against extrapolating past cycles and the impact of halving, given the respective prevailing macro conditions. The halving itself is due later this week, expected on April 20 at 01:44 UTC. Regardless of whether it results in a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event in the short term, Goldman believes BTC’s immediate price action is hardly relevant. 'Bitcoin price performance will likely continue to be driven by the said supply-demand dynamic and continued demand for bitcoin ETFs, which combined with the self-reflexive nature of crypto markets is the primary determinant for spot price action,' the bank said.
