According to Jinshi, changes in the way the U.S. government estimates health insurance costs are expected to boost CPI slightly, reversing the trend of inflation easing somewhat in recent months. Starting with the October CPI released on Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will make some adjustments to the way this category is tabulated. The new method will smooth out some fluctuations and reduce the time lag of the index. The new calculation method is expected to put upward pressure on the overall CPI at least in the short term. This will also boost inflation in the super-core service industry, which does not include energy and housing. "We believe that the Fed will continue to ignore these changes in the health insurance CPI because these (change-based) forecasts do not take into account the composition of the PCE price index, which is a much more comprehensive indicator than the concept of retained earnings used in the CPI," said Pooja Sriram, an economist at Barclays, in a report.

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