Yesterday, several major markets were closed for Christmas, which was a day to escape the heavy losses of gaming stocks.
However, the mainland ETF continues to fall inertia, and there seems to be no resistance. In contrast, the stocks of Korean companies next door have soared, which is very ironic. Even game companies that claim that all their revenue is overseas have generally been hammered by 4-5 points.
Carefully predict, even if the last draft of opinions is not implemented and all are withdrawn, it can be basically concluded that the game industry will not be a normal track in the next ten years.
The reason is that this matter is not about quantity but about quality.
1 This shows that the gaming industry in India is still not a positive industry recognized by the big guys (core)
2 This shows that the regulator knows the game very well, and it is very easy to "manage" your weak spot in a friendly way
3. The big guys like quality games and hate heavy krypton gold (for example, everyone agrees that Genshin Impact seems to have the smallest impact this time, because it wins with content), but quality games kill people's time. For old men like me who don't have much time, it is the disaster area of heavy krypton gold. But if I am not allowed to spend money, will I spend it on real industries? (So the companies that have suffered the most this time are krypton gold mobile games and web games)
4 Which industry will be the next one? (Foreign investment has collapsed again, so let’s continue to smash Hong Kong stocks together)
Someone asked if options can be used to buy at the bottom during this opportunity?
In my personal opinion, if you think that large companies like Tencent will gradually get rid of the incorrect ZZ that mainly relies on game revenue, you can consider building some forward PUTs. After all, the premium is high (mainly because the IV has been particularly high recently), and Tencent has cash on hand for direct repurchase. It's not a big problem. For example, if we open the software now, Tencent's current price is 270, but the ATM CALL in Q1 next year is 18 yuan, but the ATM put is 13 yuan, with a difference of 5 yuan. This means that the market generally believes that this downward trend will end earlier, and the probability of an increase is relatively high. I personally would consider looking for an opportunity to make a RR synthetic long in the forward if the market continues to fall at the opening today. Or you can consider buying some spot directly. After all, WeChat's mini-programs and video account ecosystems have been perfected, and the next step is to slowly grind the opponent to death strategically...
Tencent’s bottom is around 185 before, and it still seems to have the potential to go down, so don’t hold a large position.
After all, NetEase's Danzai has encountered a rival, so I suggest you wait and see. I thought NetEase would be able to make a comeback in e-commerce after the failure of Yiyuangou, but I have lost NetEase Yanxuan for a long time. PDD is still invincible.
In terms of mosaics, public chains and inscriptions are still invincible. A certain An brought about another wave of enthusiasm yesterday, directly pulling out new highs in inscription sectors such as Audi.
However, yesterday, the terrifying on-site fund U interest rate has reached an annualized 38% in the short term, which is really scary. I will never believe that the bulls have new bullets, so don’t expect a comprehensive bull market in the future. The annualized perpetual futures of the options exchange have also suddenly reached around 40. I can only say that perpetual arbitrage has been so happy recently... The market is paying so much money to the leverage providers every day...
We calculate based on the total futures position of 40 billion US dollars, and the annualized comprehensive leverage cost of 20%, which is 8 billion US dollars a year, not counting the exchange's own handling fees. We double it up and it is 16 billion US dollars a year. Of course, some people will say that the pledge of the second cake and the mining of the big cake will generate new equivalents, but the total market value of U is there, and liquidity will be drained. Let's take the simplest example to make it clear. The market value of USDC is 25 billion US dollars, and USDT is 90 billion US dollars...
If this continues, will the rate reach APR 100?
Let’s wait and see. Anyway, I am the kind of person who will continue to hoard PUT.
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