1. The first spot Bitcoin ETF may not be launched in the States

Optimists believe that a spot Bitcoin ETF will attract large investors to the crypto industry. According to Bloomberg analysts, it could be launched in early 2024.

The race to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF began in 2013 with the SEC filing by the founders of the Gemini crypto exchange, the Winklevoss brothers. At the same time, the regulator received another 30 applications to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF, but did not approve any of them due to doubts about the security of the instrument.

In June 2023, the race for the instrument was resumed by the world's largest asset manager on Wall Street, BlackRock. It was followed by others: the SEC is currently considering 13 applications to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States.

Considering that the market is currently “heated” with news of ETF approval, but the commission will reject all applications in January, this could trigger a sell-off in BTC.

2. Bitcoin halving may not go according to plan

Halving—a halving of the Bitcoin mining speed—occurs approximately once every four years (every 210 thousand blocks mined on the BTC network). It creates a shortage of coins in the market, which pushes the rate up. Halving has already occurred 3 times: in 2012, 2016 and 2020, and the next one is expected in April 2024.

After each halving, BTC updated its ATH, so many believe that a new growth cycle will begin in April.

Take for example the halving of the Litecoin network: a month before it (the halving took place in early August 2023), LTC renewed its annual maximum of $120, but at the time of halving the price was already $83, and a month later $63.
Someone can talk about the correlation with Bitcoin, since at the beginning of August BTC cost $29k, and in September $26k, but BTC, unlike LTC, did not show -50% during this period

Therefore, it is not a fact that this time buyers will be as active in buying BTC after the halving.

April 2024 is an approximate guideline for the next halving date. If many miners disconnect equipment from the network, the rate of block mining may slow down, and halving will occur later, for example, in May. If the network speed increases due to new miners, the halving could happen earlier, for example in March.

3. Binance or another major exchange may collapse

Binance is the largest crypto exchange by trading volume. It came under the radar of regulators in 2018, just a year after its launch.

In November 2023, the crypto exchange partially resolved the conflict with OFAC and US MOJ. To do this, she abandoned doing business in the USA and changed the CEO. All regulatory authorities have refused to accuse the crypto exchange, except for the SEC 🤓

It is also important to remember that other exchanges may also come under the radar of regulators: now they have questions for Kraken and Coinbase.

4. Cryptocurrency regulation may be tightened

Regulators around the world are now shaping the legal framework for the digital asset market. In some countries, for example, in El Salvador, everything is done for the prosperity of cryptocurrencies. In others, they tighten the nuts.

It is possible that in 2024, new regulatory requirements will appear in the United States, which will further complicate life for the crypto community and lead to a fall in market prices.

Another threat to the 2024 bullrun is the collapse of a major cryptocurrency. This has already happened: in May 2022, the Terra crypto project collapsed, two of whose coins were in the top 10 by capitalization. The crypto market reacted by falling by 40%.

The collapse of large-cap cryptocurrencies in 2024 could lead to a sell-off again. Now the SEC sees signs of illegally issued securities in 68 popular coins (BNB, Solana, Cardano, Polygon, etc.): each of them is at risk.

Always do your own research

The crypto market has experienced many major shocks. Bitcoin alone was buried 474 times in the media. Most likely, this time the crypto market will be able to withstand all the tests if they suddenly happen in the new year. So it’s too early to refuse to buy cryptocurrencies, even despite all the possible predictions of pessimists🙌🏻