The recent rise in Aptos (APT) has been really good, rising about 5 times in 3 weeks. (APT $19 at the time of writing)
The 3-week return rate is about 400%. What could be more terrifying than this?
Little Bee said before that we can estimate the approximate high point of the bull market APT in 2025. Let’s do the math today.
❖Benchmarking solana❖
➤Benchmarking
Because the performance features and positioning of Aptos are somewhat similar to solana, some people even say that Aptos is the continuation of solana. (Even the LOGO is a little different)
Of course, Aptos’ team is the Libra team and cannot be said to be a continuation of Solana.
However, both Aptos and Solana are high-performance public chains that support parallelism, both are positioned to develop the web3 ecosystem, and both are public chains supported by large investments. Therefore, it is still possible to benchmark.
➤solana(SOL) financing magnification
Let me compare the amplification of SOL from financing to market capitalization:
This is the financing of Solana shown by Tianyancha. To be conservative, if we add up the financing amount and slightly expand it, it will be US$414 million.
Let’s take a look at Solana’s market value in 2021. In the first half of the year, sol's market value was at its highest at US$15.29 billion, but it had not yet raised US$314 million in financing. The amount of financing at that time was less than US$100 million, so it was 153 times the amount of financing.
In the second half of the year, Sol's market capitalization peaked at US$78.28 billion, which was 189 times the amount of financing.
(Calculate the financing amount upward, so that the multiple can be lowered a bit, in order to make the estimate more conservative)
❖Market value estimate❖
➤ Decaying growth rate
Nor can we just apply the rising multiple of Solana to Aptos.
Although there are still bulls and bears in the market, as time goes by and as blockchain technology becomes more and more popular, the room for growth will gradually decrease.
Google Trends clearly proves this:
The search popularity of the word cryptocurrency on Google Trends shows that 2018 was the year with the highest search volume, but the search popularity in 2021 has dropped.
In fact, you can understand it if you think about it carefully. If you are an old currency fan, you will search for bitcoin, litecoin, ethereum... and there is a high probability that you will not search for cryptocurrency. There is a certain probability that those who search for cryptocurrency are new currency friends, and it is the strength of new currency friends that determines the room for growth.
In 2018, the search popularity of the word cryptocurrency was 100, but in 2021, it was only 93, a decrease of 7%.
➤Multiple correction
Therefore, I will also lower the 153 times and 189 times of the financing amount. I would be more conservative and adjust it to 2 times 7% and lower it to 14%;
Then the first half and second half were 132 times and 163 times respectively.
Taking into account other unknown factors, such as the competitive impact of sui, we should be more conservative and lower it by about 15%, and calculate it as 110 times and 140 times.
➤Market value estimate
Tianyancha shows that Aptos has raised at least US$350 million, and other unannounced investments are not included. This is more conservative and is calculated based on the financing amount of US$350 million.
Then, if the high point occurs in the first half of 2025, APT’s market value should be 3.5*110=38.5 billion US dollars
If the high point occurs in the second half of 2025, APT's market value should be 3.5*140=49 billion US dollars
❖Price estimate❖
Finally, consider the release of APT.
After finding this picture of APT release, I can only estimate the number of APT releases from the picture.
I used PS (specifically, cut out the picture and calculate the size proportionally) to roughly calculate. In June 2025, the approximate number of APTs will be 646 million;
In November 2025, the approximate number of APTs is 719 million.
(Why use June and November? It’s to be conservative. Why not use December, because history shows that highs tend to be in November rather than December)
➤Neutral estimate
If APT reaches a high in the first half of 2025, the price may be 385/6.46=60 US dollars
If APT reaches a high in the second half of 2025, the price may be 490/7.19 = $68
➤Optimistic estimate
Just calculate it directly as a multiple of SOL.
The amount of Binance’s second strategic investment in Aptos has not been announced. According to the investment situation of Binance in March and September 2022, the amount of strategic investment should not be very large. The two times added together are calculated as US$1,000, so Aptos The total financing amount is calculated as US$360 million.
If APT reaches a high in the first half of 2025, the price may be 3.6*153/6.46=85 US dollars
If APT reaches a high in the second half of 2025, the price may be 3.6*189/7.19=95 US dollars
❖This article is pure nonsense❖
There may be some significant discrepancies in the estimate:
First, the estimation of the attenuation of the encryption market growth rate is not scientific enough;
Second, the impact of sui is difficult to estimate, after all, sui has not yet been launched;
Third, other unanticipated factors.
However, the estimates in this article are also conservative:
First, Solana’s financing amount is enlarged to reduce the multiple of market value/financing amount;
Second, the financing amount of Aptos is reduced and the basis for calculating APT’s market value is reduced;
Third, what is not mentioned in this article is that although there is a high probability that the US dollar will be loose in 2025 as in 2021, Solana’s financing is in a water-releasing environment (the first half of 2021), while APT’s financing is in a tightening environment as the US dollar increases interest rates and shrinks its balance sheet. environment (March to September 2022).
Solana's financing and rise are the same crazy environment. Aptos financed when the U.S. dollar tightened and grew when the U.S. dollar eased.
It cannot be ruled out that there are also various changing factors, such as the benefits of additional financing or the negative effects of macro factors.
Note: This article is for analysis and research only and does not constitute investment advice!