Bitcoin's price drop from $38,000 to $36,600 prompted an examination of blockchain data to understand the reasons for the drop. The following is an analysis of Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH) based on their Profit and Loss (PNL):
I - Short-Term Holder Profit and Loss (STH PNL) Analysis:
- Active short-term holders sell their Bitcoins.
- Profits trend downward, with fewer Bitcoins sent to exchanges compared to the previous week.
- Data shows a decline in STH PNL below the 7-day simple moving average of 30,000 Bitcoins per day.
II - Long-Term Holder Net PNL Analysis:
- Long-term holders show a different pattern, holding their Bitcoin more firmly.
- The cumulative profit from Bitcoins sent to exchanges by LTH remains positive.
- However, the average daily profit varies around +2500 BTC, indicating a less active scenario.
III - Market Implications:
- The decline in Bitcoin value is caused by selling STH and LTH for profit.
- STH contributed to the decline by selling to lock in profits.
- LTH, despite market fluctuations, collects huge profits through strategic sales.
In conclusion, this analysis provides insight into how different Bitcoin holders respond to market changes. Short-term holders are quicker to sell for profits, while long-term holders take a more patient and strategic approach.