From the changes in futures and spot prices, we analyze whether the market makers are closing long positions and establishing short orders, and are preparing to end the sell-off. Still think from the banker’s perspective.
The dealer's closing of long orders and placing short orders are both selling actions, but the volume of the dealer's long orders and short orders must be extremely large. If the number of orders held is not enough, there is a probability of losses in the pull order. When the inverted pyramid collapses There may not necessarily be many people taking his chips.
Since his order volume is extremely large, there will be two unusually obvious changes in the position data and futures prices, supplemented by an auxiliary change on the chain.
1. Contract positions first drop sharply and then rise again, because this is a process of closing long orders and opening new short orders.
2. Because closing long positions and establishing short orders are both selling operations, the dealer wants to perfectly close such a large order and open a short order at the same time. The only way to do this is to continue to frantically pull in spot stocks to encourage retail investors. Seeing the huge price difference, continue to buy futures to provide yourself with buying orders for short selling of futures, so that your short position can be successfully completed. Just like yesterday's gas, I went crazy and sold long positions in futures. This period of rising currency prices will produce a huge price difference, which may be more than 30%. Previously, the price difference reached 50% for ygg, 40% for polyx, and 30% for loom at this stage.
A very interesting price change will occur during this period. I have observed it on loom and polyx. The spot price of loom that day (at 21:00 on October 15th) reached a maximum of 0.5. The futures price was 0.41 during this period, and then the futures price hit 0.2796 within an hour, and the futures price reached 0.366. It would be more interesting to use the 1-minute line to see the changes during this period. Interested friends can look at the K-line for comparison. This definitely covers a huge amount of long and short orders. The buying orders of retail investors and the order volume of market makers cannot support the order volume of market makers in such a short period of time, which will naturally result in a huge futures and spot price difference.
In the next few hours, the loom futures price actually tied the spot price. The spot price only increased by 10% from 0.36 to 0.4, while the futures price actually increased from 0.29 to 0.3866. This is definitely the bloodiest trading. Even if many players predict correctly from the huge price difference between futures and cash that the dealer should be short or the price of loom should rise to the end and participate in short selling, this counter-draw before death can still kill the smart funds here.
After the huge spot difference occurred, the counter-attack to kill short orders before the currency price died also happened on hifi and polyx. The magnitude may not be so exaggerated, but it is still fatal enough. The price of hifi has basically reached its peak on the day when the contract was launched. Futures prices continued to fall, but the spot remained motionless. The dealers used a small amount of money to hold back the spot, and then sold the futures, so that retail investors saw the price difference and felt that the funding rate was incompatible with the price. The price difference is profitable, so that the dealer can provide a closing price and complete the position opening operation. In a few hours, the futures price of hifi dropped from 2.6 dollars to 1.3 dollars. During this period, the spot price was still 2 dollars. Smart money must have judged that this was a fishtail, but it was still killed in the next five hours. The futures price The counter-draw of $2 equaled the spot price, killing this wave of smart money, and then the real plunge started just like loom. The same goes for polyx. If you are interested, you can read the K-line yourself.
The same scene happened to Gas last night. If you are interested, you can check the K-line to study it.
3. As an auxiliary point, the third point is that the changes in the actions on the chain may be helpful in judging the end of the real trb market. trb kept withdrawing currency from outside Binance, which caused the currency price to rise due to scarcity, and the same was true for loom at the time. But these operations will stop before the dealer hits the market.
Next, let’s think about it, if the dealer takes away the chips he buys every time, how can he smash the market without recharging the chips back to the exchange?
First of all, the chain will definitely be monitored by countless people. Once you transfer to the exchange, retail investors will move faster than you. This is definitely not what the banker wants to see. How can you operate ahead of me when you are making my money?
So as a banker, the most correct operation is to stop withdrawing coins from the exchange a few days or ten hours before preparing to smash the market, and at the same time, significantly increase the amount of chips used to smash the market. It can even be like this, the banker buys Of the 1 million US dollars coins, only 100,000 were offered to confuse retail investors. The external characteristic is that the changes we can see as retail investors are that prices are still rising faster than ever before, but there are very few moves on the chain. This is the last supper of retail investors before death.
To put it simply, when the currency price rises the fastest, the movement on the chain disappears or is very small. It can also be used as an aid to judge whether a fishtail market has appeared and whether a crash is about to begin.
I hope the above can be helpful to your spot selling take-profit operation, but I don’t want to use it for contract transactions.
Later, we will bring you analysis of leading projects on other tracks. If you are interested, please click follow. I will also compile some cutting-edge information inquiries and project reviews from time to time, and welcome like-minded people in the currency circle to explore together. If you have any questions, please comment or send a private message
