Conspiracy Theory] Why do I think the BTC spot ETF won’t pass in January?

Let me state in advance that this is a subjective, extreme and possibly unreliable analysis.

So why do I need to analyze it again? Quite simply, it is difficult for most entities in the world, including people, companies, financial institutions, and regulatory agencies, to completely get rid of interests. The so-called conspiracy theory is an analysis that is not comprehensive and objective enough from the perspective of interests.

SEC vs Institutions

Several institutions’ applications for BTC spot ETF were rejected several times

However, the SEC has a common interest with most of these institutions. Except for Grayscale, these institutions that applied for BTC spot ETF were all traditional financial institutions before there was cryptocurrency, and they were all institutions that complied with US regulations.

The purpose of regulatory agencies is to make the regulated entities and the market healthier, so that regulatory agencies can also gain more benefits from it.

Grayscale is different. Grayscale is a digital asset institution, including American encryption institutions such as Coinbase. Their relationship with the SEC is still in the process of adjustment. This is why Grayscale sued the SEC, they don’t have a stable and harmonious relationship yet

The relationship between the crypto market and the SEC is similar. The SEC cannot regulate the entire crypto market because the on-chain parts and some trading platforms are outside the scope of SEC supervision.

Therefore, the SEC hopes that US compliance agencies can hold enough BTC chips so that a larger BTC market will be under SEC supervision. The longer the BTC spot ETF drags on, the more opportunities these financial institutions will have to attract funds.

SEC+ Institutions vs. Market

Do you remember this picture? At that time, I was still saying in the group that this wave of rise was like someone forcibly creating it.

Obviously, the factor that created the increase is the BTC spot ETF

Summarized more than once:

Bull top in 2017, U.S. regulators pass BTC futures

In 2021, the bull market expectations in the first half of the year are over, but at the end of the year, the SEC passed the BTC futures ETF, and BTC ushered in a new high.

The benefits of spot ETFs are far greater than those of futures and futures ETFs, so it has a great impact on the market. According to expectations in 2019, the Mavericks will see a correction in the first half of 2023 and a correction in the second half of the year. What's more, the second half of 2023 is the end of the interest rate hike cycle and the peak of Fed interest rates and U.S. Treasury bond yields since 2008. These are not conducive to the trend of BTC. However, the expectation of BTC spot ETF has brought about a bull market

Therefore, spot ETF can be said to be a tool to manipulate the market.

Moreover, this manipulation work does not require spending money to pull the market. The BTC spot ETF can be the biggest substantial benefit in the history of BTC. Once passed, there may not be another instrument with such a huge influence.

So the question is, will the SEC and institutions easily give up ETFs as a tool for market manipulation?

Currency banker vs institutional banker

In the first half of this year, the time to pull the market is likely to be Saturday. This should be the banker in the currency circle

最近，观察拉盘的时间在周一刚开始或者周五快结束的时间怀疑这是机构庄。因为机构在周六周日休息

So, why do institutions pull the trigger? We know that the issuance of BTC spot ETF requires reserves of BTC spot. If institutions want to issue spot ETFs, they should hope that the price of BTC will fall so that they can attract funds!

A Bloomberg analyst suggested that “the SEC may approve spot Bitcoin ETFs around January 8-10 next year, but we expect the SEC will restrict these funds from using physical objects to create and redeem shares.” If this is the case, it means that institutions Issuing a so-called BTC spot ETF that restricts the use of BTC spot and the redemption of BTC spot

If this is the case, institutions issuing so-called BTC spot ETFs do not need to reserve BTC spot. No matter how large the demand for BTC ETF is, it will not increase the demand for BTC spot. Instead, the market may go to buy BTC ETFs instead of BTC spot. Not only is this no good, it may also be bad. And this BTC ETF cannot be called a BTC spot ETF!

at last

The current market is dominated by ETFs, but as we get closer, some institutions will choose to take arbitrage at this time. There are currently two situations. Pass one, which means that the good news will turn bad, and arbitrage will appear, and it will cooperate with the market before the halving. To start a bull market, secondly, to start a bull market by passing (it is a bit difficult) and not passing will naturally be the end of short-term emotions, so no matter what, once there is such a signal, it is an opportunity to get on the bus!

This ends today’s sharing. Thank you very much for taking the time out of your busy schedule to read this article. I hope the article is helpful to you. You can follow me and leave me a comment to communicate together.