In just 6 months, the computing power per terabyte of FIL has dropped from 0.0183 FIL to 0.014 FIL, a decrease of 24%.
You would say this is normal, after all, hasn’t the mining revenue been declining?
Let’s look at another piece of data.
Around the same period, more than 6 months ago, the total network computing power was 16.13EB, and now the total network computing power is 18.9EB, an increase of 17%.
In other words, assuming that the total FIL reward does not change every day, the entire network only used a 17% increase in storage space, but there was a 24% decrease in single T, which is very strange.
On the other hand, the total daily FIL rewards should have increased over the past six months (we say "should" because we cannot find the real output data, but we can estimate it. The picture shows the result calculated by the Force Zone based on the official formula).
The total daily reward consists of two parts. The first part, 30%, is simply minted and released linearly, with an output of 120,000 coins per day. The second part is baseline minting. As it approaches the new baseline, the amount of release will increase, eventually reaching 280,000 coins per day (70%).
So the total reward is increasing, the storage space for your share of the pie is not increasing very fast, but the share of each piece of the pie is decreasing faster. What is happening?
There is only one explanation: many people are using 10 times the effective computing power to get ahead.
Because they can use less space without anyone noticing, to get more rewards, making everything happen inconspicuously.
The original computing power in the figure is 10T, but the effective computing power is 100T.
The emergence of effective computing power may subvert the original storage structure.
1. Traditional investors will see very little return from the perspective of currency standard
Due to the traditional garbage data computing power, the new income of the coin standard in 540 days is -40% [（39260-65976）/65976], while with 10 times the effective computing power, the new income of the coin standard in 540 days is 130% [（39260-16937）/16937)], and the total income reaches 230% (for details, please see my other articles 10 times the effective computing power can bring 12.88 times the income in the next two years!).
It can be predicted that in the next year or so, new miners will flock into the 10x effective computing power market, and after the sector pledge cycle ends, old miners will quickly convert the mining machines used to store traditional garbage data to store 10x effective computing power, reducing cabinet fees and network fees, especially in the spring of 2023.
The proportion of traditional garbage data computing power will drop rapidly, and the output per T will definitely drop sharply.
If there is no bull market in the next year or so, and the coin price rebounds sharply, the coins produced by 1P effective computing power will just be enough to cover the monthly custody fee of 3,000 yuan (based on 3,000 yuan, 37 yuan per coin, and 10% management fee, the output per T cannot be less than 0.003fil). This will not be able to cope with special situations such as a sudden plunge in coin prices or the blank storage caused by the gradual release of sectors and the use of cabinet fees, resulting in forced shutdown.
2. The ranking of miners will change, and traditional leading miners will fall behind
Originally, due to domestic policy reasons, Time and Space Cloud, Interstellar Alliance and Renren Mine were all controlled by local judicial authorities. 1475, Pomegranate, Force, etc. went overseas; Black Ben, Star Continent changed their careers, and the domestic structure was already undergoing great changes. With the emergence of 10 times the effective computing power, especially some of the original leading miners or their attention is no longer here, or the main person in charge is still unable to engage in normal business activities, the original proportion of computing power will drop significantly.
For example, a leading miner currently has 1500PB, or 1.5EB, storage capacity, which originally accounted for 7.9% of the total network computing power of 18.9EB. In the next year or so, 10 times the effective computing power will dominate the mainstream, so the original 1500PB will only require 150PB for others to catch up. Assuming that the total storage capacity of the entire network drops by 30% to 13.23EB, then the proportion of 1.5EB will drop to only about 1.13%.
I worked hard to govern the country, but the Qing Dynasty fell. How can I explain this?
An emerging domestic mining company has announced that it will achieve 500PB in one year. In any case, the investment cost is very low in a bear market, and it can also help customers with data for free and contribute to society.
You should know that many of the current leading mining companies were originally very grassroots. I still remember taking a client to a leading mining company. All the company members were squeezed into a small office of about 100 square meters. The clients thought it was a scam company.
The heads of several major sectors of the emerging mining companies just mentioned joined this track after listening to my classes, so the Filecoin track is always reshuffled every once in a while, with the rise of grassroots.
3. Miners will be able to survive in the bear market and make more money than mining Bitcoin
It is difficult for all miners now. The following is the sentiment of a miner friend who wishes to remain anonymous.
Friend A: I'm working at a hosting company now, and I don't get paid. I have no choice, they can't even pay their employees, but I can't not go, my machines are still with them, and it's still early for CRU and FIL to pay back, I'm afraid he'll run away. KAO!
Friend B: CAO! This HNT is the most tiring thing for me to play. From November 2022 to now, the mining machine I bought for 10,000 has been blacklisted repeatedly. 5G is about to be released soon. When can I get my money back?
Friend C: MD, when I bought the Pineapple Miner, I invested 50 million. It was supposed to be shipped in June 2022, so I could have a small goal. Even if I sell the mining machine, 1M can be sold for 100 yuan. Now it’s delayed until the Ethereum merger, and 1M can’t be sold for 10 yuan. Hey, do you want to buy some? It’s a good opportunity. (Plus: If your partner is cheated by the Pineapple Core Miner, you can contact me. I have a friend who is forming the Avengers Alliance to ask these garbage miners for an explanation)
Friend D: Most of my BTC mining machines are low-power. They are shut down at one moment and can be turned on again at another. The power plant is not happy. If you buy the load, you must ensure that the machine is turned on. Some time ago, the superiors came to inspect again. I was drunk and confused. What should I do? I still have 2,000 machines sealed in Gansu. I can't even drink them. I also want to go overseas, but the epidemic is like this. The process is too cumbersome. The machines sent by friends to Angola and Kazakhstan have problems. Canada and the United States do not allow new mining farms to be built. NND, mining is really tiring.
Friend E: I didn’t expect that when I pledged FIL last year, the cost was $150. Now it has dropped to $5. I want to die. I really don’t want to do it now. I have to wait for it to rise 20 times before I can get out of the trap. It’s too hard for me. I haven’t paid attention to the IPFS track for a long time. If I didn’t pay the computer room fee every month, and the income could cover the monthly expenditure, I wouldn’t know that I still have a mining machine. To be honest, I don’t want to play blockchain anymore.
The above-mentioned miner friends all spoke fondly of each other, and they are not isolated cases. Last year they were so glorious and high-spirited, but this year they are feeling so depressed and miserable.
In the next six months, the big players will have to cut off the profits step by step in the order of retail investors - big investors - institutions - exchanges - miners - believers. Life will be even more difficult for miners in the future.
10x computing power may be one of the few bright spots in this dark bear market winter. After all, the return in 2 years should be more than 12.8 times (for details, the return in the next 2 years of 10x effective computing power can reach 12.88 times!)
If you still have investment capital, or are a miner with a large number of idle machines, this is a good way to survive in a bear market.
4. If 10 times the effective data is really implemented, Filecoin mining will no longer be a pure speculation model of high-level capital disks
As a person who was unable to join FIL in the early days, I expressed my unique views to my friends several times later: the IPFS ecosystem is still far from the vision ecosystem. The essence of Filecoin mining is still a Ponzi scheme that uses vision, pledges, destroys, and gradually releases. It tries to reduce the selling pressure and supply, allowing those who joined first and were released first to run away, and use high returns to fool those who join later, especially the wave of madness that started in March 2021.
After all, making profits by storing junk data is nothing if not a financial game that takes advantage of the bull market.
Things may have changed now. With the total storage capacity reaching the target and network services improving in the first two stages, the authorities are now serious about promoting valid data and will focus on cracking down on junk data.
On this basis, Filecion will realize retrieval and payment next year, and has launched the FVM virtual machine, which is compatible with Ethereum and can support Ethereum's 100,000 developers to seamlessly enter the Filecoin network to use storage.
The network has changed from storing junk data to storing valid data, and it can also realize retrieval functions. At the same time, it plays the role of a storage public chain for a prosperous ecosystem and the entrance to the WEB3.0 world.
In addition, the government is developing FIL+ and piloting E-FIL for enterprises. Currently, enterprise data is stored for free. Once charging is implemented in the future, this will be a true blockchain breakthrough.
Can only store cold data? Who cares? As long as a symbolic fee is realized, this hype imagination space, if combined with the investment enthusiasm of the next round of bull market, Filecoin may have really changed.
what should I do?
After listening to my analysis above, you may think that the prospects are so good, so you should buy coins quickly, or just hold on to the previous machines and win.
But this is not the way to maximize returns or minimize risk.
Personally, I think we should participate in the 10x effective computing power as soon as possible.
The reasons for participating have been analyzed from the perspective of benefits.
Why as soon as possible?
This has to do with the subtlety of the current official attitude and the asymmetry of market information.
First of all, let’s talk about the official attitude. When the network was first launched, the official turned a blind eye to the garbage data. It’s not because the foreigners are stupid, but they also know that there is no real data. Isn’t it just stored by miners? So the first goal is to involve miners first, so that the network has more storage space.
Now, as the starting point for the real promotion of real data, they also know that although network performance has improved, it is unrealistic to expect companies to spend money to store data. Even free space is not taken seriously by most industries. Who are you, Filecoin?
Therefore, miners are now encouraged to promote their free shares, which is equivalent to handing out flyers on the street and inviting passers-by to come to the company to get one, as long as the data is real.
Is this data valuable? It doesn’t matter! Is this passerby your aunt or uncle? Is there any interest involved? The authorities can also turn a blind eye!
Therefore, the official release is now comprehensive and full-process, although the rules are written very strictly.
The first step is to submit valid data to verify the application. Although the regulations encourage listed companies and key industries, in reality, as long as the data is real, it is still a relatively easy stage to apply.
The second stage is the notary public assessment of whether there is a share. Currently, many notaries are not qualified enough, so the shares are still sold at a relatively low price. After all, the cost of notaries is not high. More than 20 notaries form a small alliance, and mutual benefit can still be achieved in the short term.
Finally, what should we do if the effective data is still not enough? Then use technical means to amplify it, 5 times, 10 times is fine, and some very arrogant miners are ready to amplify it 100 times, which is cheating!
This water release cycle is estimated to be about half a year.
As information asymmetry in the market is gradually eliminated, more and more valid data enters the network, and more and more real passers-by are willing to claim free storage, and even large companies come to store data. The authorities will definitely begin to strictly follow the rules, and all kinds of violations will not be allowed to occur, just like the official HNT blacklist.
So if you want to make some windfall, you really have to seize the opportunity.
If you are a miner who has mastered the application for valid data, notarization of shares by notaries, data amplification, and subsequent packaging and management, then start immediately.
If you do not have the above capabilities, you can purchase directly. The market share of 1P ranges from 35,000 to 60,000 U, and its reliability and packaging transmission speed are different.
Many mining friends have reported that their valid data applications are always rejected, perhaps because they still don’t know the tricks;
Some miners can only magnify data by 2 times, and are not able to magnify it by 10 times;
Some miners are seeking notary share services.
If you encounter these situations, you can contact us and we will recommend reliable services.
In addition, if you are not a miner, but you have a company with a website, or a friend has a company with a website, you can also seek cooperation.
Welcome to leave a message, let’s seize the great opportunity together.
