1. Yesterday, Bitcoin was eaten by too many short positions
Regarding Ethereum, we also gave a purchase suggestion yesterday, and suggested taking part of the profit at $1,850 in the group.
And it is suggested to buy again at $1760, achieving a perfect long and short double-eat. Why is it done this way?
At 10:50 last night, from the 5-minute level, we identified a downward channel and it would get support at around 1760. Regarding Ethereum yesterday, we also gave a purchase suggestion and suggested taking part of the profit at 1850 US dollars in the group.
It is recommended to buy again at $1,760.
And BTC also accurately bottomed out at around 33,700 US dollars.
2. The current market has clearly entered a consolidation pattern, with clear upper and lower boundaries.
Bitcoin's resistance level is 35,200 US dollars, and its support level is 3,200 US dollars, with a fluctuation range of 2,000 points.
Ethereum’s resistance level is $1,860 and support is $1,760.
The current amplitude is very suitable for selling high and buying low, and setting a good stop loss.
3. Will BTC break through 35,200, rush straight to 40,000, or fall below 30,000?
Personally, I tend to believe that there will be another upward push. As the old saying goes, the three most difficult hurdles have been broken through, and the 35,200 barrier should be broken through next week, so it will not be difficult to reach 40,000.
At present, the market has not shown any obvious downward trend. No matter what happens outside, the market has not seen the formation of a top structure. So at least we are not bearish, we are just looking at consolidation and being relatively bullish.
Therefore, I will buy at the bottom of the BTC oscillation box, especially around 32,500 US dollars, but I will never go all in. If it falls below 31,500, I will stop loss and exit.
Although the overall outlook is bullish, you still need to be careful and cautious. Trading is always like this. Don't be blinded by the market's enthusiasm. If others are bullish, you take it as faith. In the stubbornness of self-imposed limitations, if the market reverses, you will cry and curse the dealer. At this time, a "new" news from a week ago will be released, and then the dealer will know and run away first. In fact, the market just wants you to see the news at the time.
Other self-media are responsible for acting as mouthpieces for the bookmakers. The difference between me and them is that I try my best to trace the source of the news and take precautions in advance.
Since it is not a definite bull market pattern, I have been shouting "sick bull" and also set stop losses. My attitude is different from actually facing the coming bull market, so I am mentally prepared for a possible reversal.
4. Five exclusive reminders of potential reversals
Now let me tell you the triggering point of the reversal?
1) The U.S. released data last night, and the strengthening economy is making a soft landing a reality. If inflation continues to be severe, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. The current probability of a rate hike has risen to 29.26%, and this is not an updated value after the release of economic data.
2) The U.S. government’s fiscal year 2023 funding is about to run out, and it will only have enough money to last until November 17. This is a special approved expense. In addition, the recent $100 billion in foreign aid to Ukraine and Israel will make the use of funds even more difficult. Of course, this foreign aid budget has not yet been passed, and it will not be used before the shutdown deadline in November, but there is no doubt that the bookmakers will make full use of this news to make a fuss.
3) As U.S. stocks continue to plummet, can Bitcoin maintain its independent trend?
4) The U.S. government will investigate the channels through which Iran obtains funds to support terrorism. Will it tighten regulation of digital currencies next?
5) The transaction volume of forward call options is actually close to that of the bull market. Will this cause sellers to push down prices to the maximum pain point in the next 1-2 months in order to avoid losses?
By the way, will the options expiring this afternoon have a big impact? The answer is no, because the trading volume has been too sluggish in the past few months, and it is still far from the biggest pain point of 29,500 US dollars. Ethereum is relatively close at 1,650, so let's wait and see if there is a lower point for Ethereum to take over. This is also the reason why I just notified the exit of long orders and took over at a lower point.
Also, the babydoge mentioned earlier has increased by 30%.
The Zens who added to their positions last night all made good profits today.
There will be more small passwords next, and I will send them out in time.
