Bitcoin has been rising and falling again and again. In yesterday's volatile decline, the lowest price was 66,670, and now it has reached 68,000!
Blood-sucking market, BTC rises, blood-sucking altcoins, altcoins fall; BTC falls, altcoins follow suit! Where is the cryptocurrency world going?
Bitcoin has adjusted very strongly. The cottage industry is not so lucky. Some fell, some died, and never came back. At present, I seem to see the familiar script of the early bull market, when Bitcoin oscillated and sucked the blood of the cottage industry. After Bitcoin sucked the blood, it basically has to wait until BTC goes sideways, and then the concept of cottage industry will slowly start to be hyped, and then the sector will rotate! At present, BTC has rushed to such a high position, and the outbreak of cottage industry in the later period is inevitable!
BTC breaks through 70,000 to meet external conditions for 100,000!
1. The market value of stablecoins continues to increase
BTC price is growing slowly. Whether it is USDT, USDC or any other stablecoin, they are the foundation of the crypto world. The total market value of stablecoins has reached 173 billion US dollars. Since March this year, the market value of USDT has also continued to rise, but the price of BTC has not shown a significant upward trend, indicating that there is still a large amount of liquidity waiting to enter the market in the OTC market.
2. M2 Money Supply
M2 is a measure of money supply, including cash, check deposits, and other deposits that can be easily converted into cash. Its current market value is $94 trillion, which is 39 times the total market value of the crypto market. According to historical relationship analysis, every 10% increase in M2 money supply will increase BTC by 90%.
Currently, the M2 money supply is nearly 3% higher than the previous peak, while BTC is still below its 2021 high. With global interest rate cuts and quantitative easing, fiat currency has clearly become the most unwise means of investment.
3. Adequate OTC liquidity
The current distribution of OTC liquidity: M2 money supply of $94 trillion, money market funds of $6.5 trillion, cash holdings of $2.5 trillion, and stablecoin market value of $173 billion, totaling $103.17 trillion, equivalent to 43 times the total market value of the crypto market.
Despite the sideways price movement, no interest rate cuts, and no quantitative easing, the net inflow of funds into BTC ETFs has exceeded $20 billion so far. Therefore, as the bull market progresses, the injection of external liquidity into the crypto market will only increase.
According to this monthly chart, Bitcoin could rise another 1,000% to $300,000
In any market, it is always more comfortable to buy at the bottom and sell at the top than to chase the rise and sell at the fall.
Just like there are always people waiting to buy at 2800 when A-shares are at 3100; just like there are always people waiting to buy at 51000 when BTC is at 57000. But please rest assured, such people still dare not buy at 2800 of A-shares and 51000 of BTC. They will only enter the market out of FOMO when A-shares are at 3700 and BTC is at 70000.
There may not be a MEME super cycle, but there will definitely be a super MEME.
Now there are several main types of MEME:
1. The Chinese people mainly rely on human-to-human transmission and shouting.
2. The foreigners are mainly trying to create a god and lead people, while shouting "big dealer" and pulling up the market.
If a market maker holds tokens, does that mean he is involved in market making?
I saw the news this morning that "Wintermute becomes the third largest holder of GOAT, holding 1% of the total supply of tokens." However, just as airdropping tokens to Vitalik Buterin is a publicity stunt, airdropping tokens to market makers is nothing new.
So the question is, how to determine whether the market maker is really involved?
1. Typical examples of market making participation
2. Examples used only as a promotional tool
1. Take GOAT as an example
1. Falsification: It is true that 10 million GOAT are held and the contract address is correct; do not underestimate this step, as many issuers use the same token name to promote market makers.
2. Identify the source of funds: Tracing back, it was found that four addresses transferred millions of tokens to 7GNPT….snUM1, and all of them were early-stage addresses with extremely high return rates, with a cumulative profit of 11.63 million US dollars!
2. Take GOAT as an example
3. Check the market maker’s operation: After receiving the token, it did two things. First, it transferred 1 token to Wintermute1 and immediately transferred it back. This is an obvious confirmation address action. Second, it distributed all tokens to Wintermute3 address after two transfers.
Seeing this, it is basically certain that Wintermute actively participated in GOAT market making. As for whether it was OTC buying coins/instructed by the project party or spontaneous behavior, it is unknown.
4. Stay tuned: Ultimately, it depends on whether Wintermute3 frequently conducts GOAT transactions. If so, it can be confirmed.
3. Typical examples of market making
Wintermute participated in the market making of capitalized $NEIRO: He once held 4.35% of the total supply of tokens and was once the largest holder. After receiving the tokens, he actively maintained frequent transactions with major exchanges and DEXs
Four: Typical examples used only as a means of publicity
This type generally has several characteristics
1. Direct airdrop by the project owner/DEV
2. Usually airdropped to market makers and well-known founders in the cryptocurrency circle, such as Vitalik Buterin and Sun Ge
3. The market maker does not take any action after receiving it (V God may sell it directly)
4. The community publicizes that a certain institution has participated in market making
As for the pull-up and push-down, I won’t give examples here. You can check these characteristics yourself. Of course, the pull-up is not a panacea, and narrative evaluation is very important.
