Bitcoin is still on the rise, officially breaking the $68,000 mark, and could even reach $71,000. However, I maintain my view that Bitcoin will have a correction and recovery, likely during and after the US presidential election.
In the past, specifically the last three elections (2012, 2016, and 2020), Bitcoin has seen strong growth. Specifically:
- 2012: Bitcoin increased 23.27% just one month after the election and reached 89.32% three months later.
- 2016: continued with increases of 9.93% and 41.52%.
- 2020: Bitcoin increased by 36.87% just one month after the election and recorded a 149.48% increase in three months.
As can be seen from the statistics table, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin's uptrend is inevitable. However, on-chain data and technical analysis are warning of a tsunami that kills long and short brothers. Next, I will analyze specifically the comments and future strategies.
Which projects will benefit when the new president takes office?
The two candidates have different approaches to crypto, specifically:
- Trump: Despite his negative views on crypto, Trump has 'turned the wheel' by releasing an NFT collection in 2022 and most recently, releasing the World Liberty Financial token. If Trump is elected, projects in the fields of DeFi, NFTs, Memecoins, Infrastructure.
- Harris: Although a Democrat, Harris has a more open view on crypto than her predecessor, Biden, although she is still generally more conservative than Trump. If Harris is elected, laws on control and regulation for Web3 will be tightened, with projects in the following areas being focused on: AI, Infrastructure, Stablecoin, DAO governance.
So basically, no matter who wins, certain crypto projects will go up, along with the price of Bitcoin. However, if Trump wins, you might see shill projects by Trump and Elon Musk along with some memecoins flying.
Why Will Bitcoin Price Correct Soon?
Although the greed index is quite high combined with Bitcoin candles flying for many consecutive days, there are two reasons why I believe Bitcoin will correct.
1. Too many people are making a profit
According to data from Into The Cryptoverse, only 8.5% of Bitcoin holders were losing money when BTC hit $66,870 on October 16. In other words, 91.5% of the guys in the queue were in the black, to varying degrees. With the market so bullish, a correction is inevitable, although Bitcoin may continue to see false signals caused by market makers.
2. Technical analysis signals are warning of a decline
Analysis data from Vistia is showing that on the 1-day candlestick, RSI14, Bitcoin is in the overbought zone. With this signal, Bitcoin is expected to have a decline in the future, possibly down to $63,000. However, Bitcoin can still continue to increase, breaking the $71,000 threshold. You should consider carefully before placing an order, you can use the Scalping strategy to avoid risks or hold for the long term.
So what is the future strategy?
In short, it's "those who are afraid should go home."
The crypto market is always volatile, currently Bitcoin is continuously increasing, creating FOMO psychology. However, with BTC Dom up to more than 50%, other altcoin holders will continue to have difficulty breathing while those who have not yet collected goods before the wave will be impatient. Personally, I advise you not to chase the peak but calmly wait for BTC to go down before collecting goods and aiming for long-term holding.
Thanks for reading this far. What do you think will happen? Do you support Trump or Harris?
