On Friday (October 18), after Bitcoin surged through $68,000, the price fell slightly, but bulls still held the steering wheel. Less than three weeks before the US presidential election in November, former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's chances of winning have soared to 61.7%. World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a crypto project under his family, released a gold document showing that his family will receive 75% of the project's cryptocurrency income and will not bear any responsibility.
According to Arkham data, Trump's cryptocurrency holdings have increased by $6.1 million since the beginning of the year, and more than 65% of his current cryptocurrency holdings are meme coins.
According to CNBC, the World Liberty Financial project led by the Trump family released a 13-page "gold document" on Thursday, describing its mission and how tokens are distributed, and stating that Trump and his family can obtain 75% of the net income, that is, the Trump family will receive 22.5 billion WLFI tokens, which is currently worth $337.5 million based on the price of 1.5 cents per token when it was issued this week.
The filing also shows that Trump and his family do not bear any responsibility. It shows that none of them are directors, employees, officers or operators of WLFI or its affiliates, and says the project and tokens are "not politically related or associated with any political campaign."
The WLFI white paper states that a Delaware corporation called DT Marks DEFI LLC, which is associated with Trump, will receive three-quarters of net agreement revenue. The document released Thursday defines net agreement revenue as revenues WLFI receives from “any source (including, but not limited to, platform royalties, token sale proceeds, advertising, or other sources of revenue), after deducting agreed-upon expenses and reserves required for the ongoing operations of WLF.”
Approximately $30 million of the initial proceeds are earmarked for reserves to cover operating expenses and other financial obligations. The remaining 25% of net agreed proceeds will go to Axiom Management Group (AMG), a Puerto Rico-based limited liability company wholly owned by co-founders Chase Herro and Zachary Folkman.
AMG has agreed to assign half of its rights to the net agreed proceeds to a third LLC, WC Digital Fi, which is an affiliate of Trump confidant and political donor Steve Witkoff and "certain family members." Witkoff's son Zachary is also listed as one of the project's co-founders.
As of Friday's Asian session, 867 million Trump WLFI tokens had been publicly sold, far short of the project's ultimate goal of 20 billion.
According to data from Polymarket, a large cryptocurrency betting platform, Trump's chances of winning in November soared to 61.7%, far surpassing Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
CryptoSlate reported that a new Polymarket trader “Theo4” made more than $12 million in high-frequency bets on the likelihood of Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election in three days. Theo4 joined the platform this month, operating from wallet address 0x5668, and quickly amassed a position of more than $7.1 million.
Most of their trades were focused on markets predicting a Trump win, including buying 7,553,789 shares of the "Will Trump win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?" position at an average price of 58 cents per share. At the current price of 61 cents, this position alone has generated a profit of about $237,158.
In addition to betting on an overall Trump victory, Theo4 also placed large bets on related markets, such as Trump winning the popular vote and the Republican candidate winning the popular vote and the presidency. The trader's activity also included markets for Republican success and outcomes in key states.
Despite the high volume, traders are still holding onto profits of over $346,000. The rapid accumulation of positions indicates strong confidence in the Republican Party’s performance in the upcoming elections on Polymarket, with new positions being bought regardless of price.
Theo4 has now surpassed PrincessCaro to become the second largest holder of Trump positions on Polymarket. The top three holders continued to place buy orders throughout October as the odds of Trump winning rose from 50% to over 61%.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Matthew Hyland, a cryptocurrency analyst, said that bears will only get excited if Bitcoin falls below $58,800. The last time Bitcoin hit that level was on September 17, when it briefly touched $58,192 before climbing to $65,000 on September 27.
He stressed that any data below that level "is just noise if we see a pullback."
Glassnode chief analyst James Check reiterated to followers holding long positions in Bitcoin to “remain patient” and avoid the temptation of “fear of missing out” (FOMO), stressing that price pullbacks “will happen.”
“High leverage means greater potential for volatility,” Check stressed, while pointing out that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) hit a record high.
On October 15, Cointelegraph reported that the total number of Bitcoin futures contracts has reached 566,270, the highest level since January 2023.
According to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, the overall market sentiment is currently in a state of "greed".
The index, which represents current “sentiment and emotion” toward Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, has a “greed” score of 71, up 32 points since Oct. 10.
But not everyone thinks a Bitcoin price correction is imminent, with cryptocurrency trader Wolf not expecting such a sharp drop in Bitcoin prices.
“Before breaking the last resistance of the pattern, keep in mind the possibility of a pullback to the $63,200-$64,400 range,” Wolfe said.
Cumulative inflows into bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surpassed $20 billion on Friday, following four consecutive days of inflows for U.S. products.
It is worth noting that on October 16, BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, received daily inflows of US$393.4 million, the highest level since US$526.7 million on July 22.
