The long-dormant "Trump deal" seems to be making a comeback. Among them, the stock price of Trump Media Technology Group continued to soar. On October 16, Eastern Time, the stock price soared by more than 15.5%. The latest stock price has increased by more than 166% compared with the low point in September. At the same time, the "Trump deal" is driving the price of Bitcoin and the dollar to continue to strengthen.
On the news front, Trump's campaign situation has staged a major reversal. On October 16 local time, a national poll released by Fox News showed that Trump led Harris with 50% support, compared with Harris' 48%. This was a major change compared with Harris' 50%-48% advantage in September.
Stanley Druckenmiller, billionaire investor, chairman and CEO of Duquesne Family Office, said, "The market has priced in Trump's victory in next month's U.S. presidential election. In the past 12 days, the market seems very sure that Trump will win."
Trump's sudden reversal
With less than three weeks left until the voting day of the US presidential election, the battle between Democratic presidential candidate Harris and Republican presidential candidate Trump is becoming increasingly fierce.
But at a critical moment, Trump's campaign situation suddenly took a major turn.
On October 16, local time, a national poll released by Fox News showed that Trump was leading Harris with 50% support to 48%, which was a significant change compared to Harris' 50%-48% advantage in September.
It is reported that the poll was conducted from October 11 to 14. The data was based on 1,110 potential voters and a secondary sampling of 870 potential voters, with an error margin of +/- 3 percentage points.
According to the betting market average provided by RealClearPolitics, a website that aggregates betting odds, as of the evening of October 16 local time, Trump's probability of winning was as high as 57.7%, the highest level since July 22, far ahead of his Democratic rival Harris' 41.3%.
According to data from Polymarket, a well-known crypto prediction market platform, Trump's approval rating continued to rise after reaching "equalization" on October 3. As of October 14, Trump's approval rating was 54.0%, far ahead of Harris' 44.5%.
Three support surveys released by authoritative American polling organizations also showed that Harris' previous lead over Trump is shrinking.
The latest poll results released by NBC show that Harris and Trump are expected to have the same approval rating nationwide, both at 48%, by the voting day on November 5. In the same survey last month, Harris's approval rating was 5 percentage points ahead.
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) tracked and analyzed the US presidential election poll data for several months and found that in the seven states considered "key battlegrounds", the poll results were "very close". According to the average of the poll data, no candidate has yet achieved a "decisive advantage".
According to NBC, the number of voters who "believe that the election may have a huge impact on their lives" hit a new high in this US election. This means that Harris and Trump are facing an uncertain future and unprecedented challenges.
The Trump deal is back
The changes in Trump's campaign situation have caused huge fluctuations in the capital market, and the long-dormant "Trump deal" seems to be making a comeback.
First, the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group continued to soar. On October 16, Eastern Time, the stock price rose again by 15.5%, and the latest stock price was $31.26, a cumulative increase of more than 166% compared to the low point in September.
Secondly, the price of Bitcoin also continued to strengthen. On the evening of October 16, the price of Bitcoin once exceeded $68,000 per coin, the highest level since July 30. As of press time, the price of Bitcoin was $67,563 per coin. In terms of news, Bitcoin, as an area that Trump had previously publicly expressed support for, performed well when the recent "Trump deal" made a comeback.
In addition, the "Trump trade" is driving the dollar to continue to rise. Traders said that in the more than $300 billion foreign exchange options market, dollar call options are becoming more and more popular. Saurabh Tandon, global head of foreign exchange options at Standard Chartered Bank, said: "When the odds of Trump's victory began to shift in his favor last week, such bets began to increase."
On the other hand, the "Harris Trade" has shown weakness. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) and iShares Clean Energy ETF (ICLN), which are considered to be representatives of the "Harris Trade", have fallen 12% and 8% this month, respectively.
On October 16, local time, billionaire investor, Duquesne Family Office Chairman and CEO Stanley Druckenmiller said that the market has already priced in Trump's victory in next month's US presidential election. "In the past 12 days, the market seems very sure that Trump will win. You can see this in bank stocks, you can see this in cryptocurrencies, and even in Trump Media Technology DJT."
Guotai Junan International believes that the "Trump deal" is good for industries such as finance, energy and information technology. From the perspective of Trump's policy platform, in terms of energy, compared with Harris' support for clean energy and tax breaks for electric vehicles, Trump promised to vigorously exploit fossil fuels, relax a series of environmental regulations, and did not support the Green New Deal policy; Trump regarded the Biden administration's electric vehicle plan as a threat to the US auto industry and economy, focusing on the development of traditional fuel vehicles, which is more beneficial to the traditional energy industry. In the information technology industry, Trump's policy on economic expansion is good for the information technology industry. For the financial industry, Trump tends to relax financial supervision and support the development of cryptocurrencies. The reduction in compliance costs will undoubtedly improve the overall profitability of the industry.
