The US election is approaching, and all statistical channels show that Trump is leading in the competition, but the US election is still full of uncertainty.
Datalab options data shows that the IV of BTC's at-the-money options in the election week was 57%, while the IV of the at-the-money options in the week before the election was only 47%. The market gave a 10% IV difference for the election.
The current term structure also illustrates an implicit market view: the market will not fluctuate too much before the end of the election. Market trading volume also illustrates this point. Even if the rally is good this week, big investors are unwilling to bet on continued gains.
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