Bitcoin Will Be More Affected by the US Election Than CPI News, According to Bernstein!
In a new report published today (October 15), analysts from financial firm Bernstein made notable projections about the price of BTC (Bitcoin) at the end of 2024.
Specifically, the authors, including Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia, wrote: “We believe that BTC’s recent positive performance is being driven by Donald Trump’s surging election odds.”
Analysts added that although both US presidential candidates will support digital assets, Trump's advantage will be a more positive signal as he has expressed strong support for Bitcoin.
According to data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, Mr Trump's odds of winning the election are currently at 55.9% - far ahead of Ms Harris's 43.8%.
Using data from the US-run prediction market Kalshi, Bernstein found that Trump also has a big advantage over Harris, with Trump’s odds of winning at 55%, 10 percentage points higher than Harris’s 45%.
In the report, Bernstein analysts reiterated their prediction that BTC could reach $80,000 - $90,000 if Mr. Trump wins the election on November 5.
Bernstein also pointed out that if Harris wins, BTC could retest the $40,000 support zone in the short term. However, they believe that in the long term, BTC will still set new highs regardless of who wins the election.
Sharing the same view with Bernstein, James Butterfill (head of research at CoinShares) also believes that BTC prices in the next few months will be greatly affected by the US election instead of macroeconomic data such as CPI or PPI.
As of writing, BTC (Bitcoin) is currently trading around $65,700 – up nearly 2% over the past 24 hours.
Since the beginning of October, BTC has gained nearly 4% - even recovering nearly 12% if calculated from the bottom of $ 59,000 on October 10. After a volatile start, BTC has returned to the "Up to ber" orbit - meeting the expectations of many investors.
The return of positive investor sentiment has helped many Memecoins benefit, including many notable names appearing on the top gainers on Binance such as TURBO (up 33%), MEME (up 21%), BOME (up 15%), ...
The good recovery of BTC in recent days also has a significant contribution from the positive return of capital flow into BTC ETF funds.
In the US, Spot BTC ETFs saw positive inflows of $555.9 million - a four-month high. Inflows were concentrated in FBTC (Fidelity) and BITB (Bitwise) funds with $239.3 million and $100.2 million, respectively.
Trading volume of Spot BTC ETFs also reached over $2.6 billion - the highest figure since August 23. BlackRock's IBIT fund contributed $1.67 billion of this total volume.
Since the launch of BTC ETFs in January this year, cumulative inflows have reached $19.36 billion. In addition, US-based Spot ETH ETFs also reported inflows of $17 million on October 14, the highest number in October.
