It has been a while since the US and China cut interest rates, and the US stock market has remained strong and maintained at a high level. However, there have been some contradictions in recent economic data such as non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates in the United States. For example, non-farm payrolls were higher than expected, but the unemployment rate rose, indicating that the market divergence is quite obvious.
I began to suspect that this might be the result of the influence of the US government behind the scenes. The government has been supporting businesses and residents by continuously borrowing to maintain relative economic stability in order not to cause stock market turmoil before the US election in November. If there are problems with the US stock market before the election, it will be more difficult for Harris to defeat Trump. And this economic situation is likely to be broken after the election. If Trump wins, the Biden administration may take drastic measures to cause a sharp drop in US stocks, thus creating trouble for Trump.
As for China's A-shares, the bull market lasted only a few days. Retail investors bought in, but institutions were quietly selling, and retail investors once again became the receivers. This time, the last A-share investors were indeed "uprooted". There is no need to expect the Chinese government to continue to support A-shares, because our economic lifeline is in real estate rather than the stock market. Regarding the current situation of China's corporate capital market, relevant policymakers are well aware that rescuing the stock market will only allow funds to flow to a few rich people, but will not promote industrial upgrading or improve employee benefits. Instead, it may aggravate the gap between the rich and the poor and further suppress consumption.
Having said so much about US stocks and A shares, back to the currency circle, Bitcoin is still fluctuating in the range of 60,000-65,000 US dollars. As long as the daily closing does not break through the two pressure levels of 63,500 US dollars and 65,000 US dollars, the overall trend is still biased towards the short side. In the future, it may break through this range downward and form a new downward trend, but I can't be sure when it will fall below the 60,000-65,000 US dollar range. There is little chance that the shock will end this week, and there may be further changes next week. (Personal opinion, for reference only)
