The road ahead is long and arduous
Good morning everyone, I am Bingtangcheng. This year, the speed of updating articles has slowed down again. It used to be daily, then weekly, and now it has become monthly. Because the current articles are more about trends, I will update short-term trends when I have enough time in the future, and strive to update daily.
The trend is different from the short-term trend. The short-term trend is usually intraday trading, which focuses more on small-scale fluctuations, such as hourly or even 15-minute and 5-minute levels. One transaction is considered one transaction, which requires more time and energy. Trends need to be waited for. There may be only 3-5 opportunities for big trends in a year, or even less. If you catch one or two of them, you can beat most people.
Trend trading is like doing subtraction, reducing the frequency of trading and the time of watching the market. Once you open a position, you must endure the fluctuation of the K-line, forget about the price jump, and wait patiently. Regardless of trend or short-term, the most important thing in the trading market is the confrontation of human nature. Even if you follow the strategies suggested by others, everyone's results will be different.
First, you must know yourself, then see the reality, and finally concentrate your superior forces to capture the city. You must know what kind of person you are before you can establish a corresponding trading system. Other people's trading systems and trading "holy grails" may not be suitable for you. Everyone has their own face. Whether you follow other people's ideas or use your own trading system, execution is also very important. It is easy to talk but difficult to act. Trading is a long practice.
After the opening chat, let's talk about the market of Bitcoin. When I updated the article on September 17, I said that the weekly level is not too bad for bulls. I mentioned the 64,000-65,000 line. At the end of the month, the price reached above 66,000. In fact, my overall idea has not changed. After the decline at the beginning of this month, it broke the 60,000 mark on the 11th to lure shorts. At present, the market has pulled back to the 63,000 line again. Whether it is the monthly or weekly level, the current view is the same as the last update. For bulls, it is not a very bad structure. As long as the weekly level does not actually break the 60-day moving average, then as long as the retracement stops the decline, it is an opportunity to take more.
Judging from the K-line, after the market reached its historical high in March this year, it touched above 70,000 for five consecutive times in April, May, June and July. Although the high point is moving downward, I still believe that if the subsequent market tests above 70,000 again, the probability of breaking the previous high is very high, because no matter whether it is support or resistance, if the same position is tested many times, the probability of subsequent breakout will be very high. This is how I understand it.
Regarding the forecast of the subsequent market trend, since it is a forecast, it is to dig a pipeline ahead of the market, and more trial and error is needed. If you want to catch the trend, this is inevitable. If this wave of 66,000 line peaks in the short term, then the market will continue to maintain a high-level large box shock. As long as the 60-day moving average at the weekly level does not break, the retracement to the vicinity of this position is an excellent opportunity to open a long position. If the support rebound strength at the 60,000-58,000 line can test above 70,000, then a new historical high will be within reach.
I mentioned before that there is a risk of washing spot players in the market, because many spot players have full positions, and some swing spot players have heavy positions, so washing is also a routine operation of the dog dealer. What I want to say is that washing spot does not necessarily require a drop in price to be completed. It is the same as buying a house in our country. The more the house price rises, the more people buy houses, and the more it falls, the more people wait and see. FOMO, crazy rises or record highs can also wash the spot.
First of all, the current market has been in a high-level large box shock, and the shock lasted for half a year, which is wearing out people's hearts and making people doubt their positions. In addition, entering the market is to make money. Long-term no returns may make people want to change markets, such as gold or commodities and other financial products. Secondly, it is to end the shock and start a strong rise to break the previous high to a new high, so that players who are not fully invested can fill their positions, and even add leverage to fully invest in spot, so that players with fully invested positions can continue to find other funds to enter the market, thinking of crossing the class across the stars and the sea, and then walking out of the market of harvesting and washing spot. This is not something that does not exist. It is purely a personal opinion, for reference.
Therefore, whether it is spot or contract, you must do a good job of risk control, otherwise when the real node comes, your gun has no bullets, which is a very sad thing. In the short term, Dabing will first focus on the 61000-60000 line, followed by the 58000 line. On the upper side, we should first focus on the 64000-65000 line. The big cycle is the MA60 of the weekly line. As long as it is not lost here, the big trend structure will not be broken. Today's article does not have specific operational suggestions. More Dabing Auntie suggests finding Bingtang in real time. Articles generally give a range because they focus on the trend rather than the price. In 22 years, some fans said that Bingtang was the head of the Air Force. At that time, there were more bearish sentiments. At the end of September last year, he became a bullish army. It was sometimes easier to follow the trend and make a direction. There are less than 2 months left this year. The market may change greatly. Will there be a big surprise in October? Let's wait and see.
