Futures Morning Rush-Audio Version

Female Mandarin Version Download mp3

Macro News

1. According to Xinhua News Agency, the General Office of the State Council recently forwarded the Opinions of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments on strengthening supervision, preventing risks and promoting high-quality development of the futures market. The Opinions deployed 17 key measures in eight aspects. It mentioned that commercial banks should be encouraged to participate in the pilot of treasury bond futures trading in a steady and orderly manner. According to the development and changes of the market, the scope of implementation and charging standards of declaration fees should be optimized in a timely manner. The handling fee reduction behavior of futures exchanges and futures companies should be standardized, and the handling fee reduction for high-frequency transactions should be cancelled. Steadily promote combined margin, improve market maker management rules, and reduce corporate hedging costs.

2. According to Xinhua News Agency, on October 11, local time, Premier Li Qiang attended the 19th East Asia Summit in Vientiane, Laos. Li Qiang pointed out that China is determined to promote open cooperation, fully and high-quality implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, accelerate the construction of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area, promote regional economic integration, and avoid politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues.

3. Wang Li, deputy director of the General Office of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated at the press conference of the 2024 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting on October 11 that the China Securities Regulatory Commission will further implement the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, continue to promote the implementation of the new "Nine National Policies" and the "1+N" policies of the capital market, further comprehensively deepen capital market reform, and better play the role of the capital market.

4. A source told (The Times of Israel) that "no major decisions were made" at the Israeli Security Cabinet meeting Thursday night. The official went on to say that Israel is willing to coordinate with the United States in response to Iran's missile attack. The two sides continue to have strategic discussions. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office said that Israeli Defense Minister Garan's plan to travel to the United States to discuss Israel's response measures has not yet been approved.

5. The latest data from the China Futures Association on Friday showed that my country's futures market operated smoothly in September, with trading volume steadily increasing. The data showed that the national futures market transaction volume in September was 794 million lots, and the transaction amount was 53.69 trillion yuan, up 6.39% and 4.29% year-on-year respectively.

6. Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange showed that as of October 11, the Shanghai export container freight rate comprehensive index was 2062.57 points, down 72.51 points from the previous period; the China export container freight rate comprehensive index was 1476.98 points, down 9.9% from the previous period.

7. The annual rate of PPI in the United States in September was 1.8%, higher than the market expectation of 1.6%. The previous value was revised up from 1.7% to 1.9%.

8. Minister of Finance Lan Fuan said at the State Council Information Office press conference that the overall risk of local debt has been alleviated and the debt reduction work has achieved phased results. The Ministry of Finance will issue special treasury bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks to supplement capital. The Ministry of Finance will use local government and other tools to support and promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. A package of targeted incremental policy measures will be launched in the near future. Countercyclical regulation is by no means limited to these four points. Other policy tools are being studied, and the central government still has a large deficit to increase. It is planned to increase the debt limit on a large scale at one time to replace the existing hidden debt of local governments.

9. Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that special bonds can be used for land reserves, and areas in need can use them for new land reserve projects. Special bonds should be used to purchase existing commercial housing and use them as affordable housing in various places. We are working hard to clarify and cancel the value-added tax policy that aligns the standards of ordinary residential and non-ordinary residential properties. The capital replenishment work of large state-owned banks has been launched, and we are waiting for each bank to submit its capital replenishment plan.

10. Wang Dongwei, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the next step will be to study the expansion of the scope of special bonds, maintain the intensity and rhythm of government investment, and reasonably reduce financing costs. Special bonds will be used to support economically developed provinces, and the allocation of quotas will be tilted towards regions with sufficient project preparation and high investment efficiency to support project construction in economically developed provinces.

11. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2024, the national consumer price index rose by 0.4% year-on-year. On average from January to September, the national consumer price index rose by 0.3% year-on-year. In September 2024, the national industrial producer price index fell by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month; the industrial producer purchase price index fell by 2.2% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month.

Global futures market changes

1. International oil prices fell across the board, with the November contract of U.S. crude oil falling 0.47% to $75.49 per barrel, up 1.49% for the week. The December contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.77% to $78.86 per barrel, up 0.95% for the week.

2. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.32% at $2,674.2/oz, up 0.24% for the week. COMEX silver futures closed up 1.58% at $31.735/oz, down 2.03% for the week.

3. London base metals closed higher collectively, with LME copper futures up 0.82% at $9,803/ton, LME zinc futures up 2.25% at $3,156/ton, LME nickel futures up 2.08% at $17,905/ton, LME aluminum futures up 2.01% at $2,638/ton, LME tin futures up 1.62% at $33,350/ton and LME lead futures up 1.62% at $2,100/ton.

4. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 0.96% to 1005 cents per bushel; corn futures down 0.48% to 416.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 0.7% to 599.5 cents per bushel.

5. Domestic futures night trading closed, glass and soda ash rose by more than 6%, No. 20 rubber, caustic soda, coke, rubber rose by more than 3%, crude oil, coking coal, PVC, iron ore, hot coil rose by more than 2%. Basic metals closed up across the board, alumina rose by 6.06%, Shanghai lead rose by 1.83%, Shanghai zinc rose by 1.7%, Shanghai nickel rose by 1.69%, stainless steel rose by 1.43%, Shanghai tin rose by 1.15%, Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.06%, Shanghai copper rose by 0.96%. Shanghai gold rose by 0.87%, Shanghai silver rose by 1.93%.

Black hot news

1. On October 11, Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 151.0593 million tons, an increase of 530,100 tons from the previous month (150.5292 million tons before the holiday), and the average daily port throughput of the 45 ports was 3.2501 million tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons from the previous month.

2. Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills and found that the blast furnace operating rate was 80.79%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.41 percentage points from last year; the average daily molten iron output was 2.3308 million tons, an increase of 50,600 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 128,700 tons from the same period last year.

3. Last week, Mysteel statistics showed that the operating rate of 187 independent silicon and manganese enterprises nationwide was 41.9%, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous week; the average daily output was 24,730 tons, a decrease of 460 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises nationwide was 39.06%, a decrease of 0.11% from the previous period; the average daily output was 15,985 tons, an increase of 470 tons from the previous period.

4. According to Mysteel, the bidding quantity of Hesteel 75B ferrosilicon in October is 2,036 tons, and the bidding quantity in the previous round is 1,200 tons. The deadline for bidding is 9:00 on October 12, 2024. Hesteel's silicon manganese production in October is 12,000 tons, the production in September is 10,500 tons, and the production in October 2023 is 22,000 tons.

5. According to Xiben Shinkansen, Ansteel adjusted its product price policy for November 2024 based on the "Product Price Policy for October 2024" as follows: Hot-rolled steel increased by RMB 500/ton. Cold-rolled steel increased by RMB 500/ton, medium and thick plates increased by RMB 500/ton. Wire rod increased by RMB 500/ton. Rebar increased by RMB 500/ton.

6. China Iron and Steel Association: In late September 2024, the key statistical steel inventory of steel enterprises was 14.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.37 million tons from the previous ten days, a decrease of 8.8%; an increase of 1.92 million tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 15.5%; a decrease of 260,000 tons from the same ten days of the previous month, a decrease of 1.8%; a decrease of 970,000 tons from the same ten days last year, a decrease of 6.4%; a decrease of 1.60 million tons from the same ten days of the previous year, a decrease of 10.1%.

7. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early October, the social inventory of five major steel varieties in 21 cities was 7.63 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons from the previous month, up 2.0%, and the first increase after 80 consecutive weeks of decline; an increase of 340,000 tons from the beginning of the year, up 4.7%; a decrease of 1.61 million tons from the same period last year, down 17.4%. In early October, the inventory of rebar was 2.61 million tons, an increase of 170,000 tons from the previous month, up 7.0%, and the first increase after 80 consecutive weeks of decline.

8. According to Gangyin E-commerce, the total inventory in cities this week was 7.8734 million tons, an increase of 69,900 tons (+0.90%) from the pre-holiday period, including 39 cities and a total of 147 warehouses. The total inventory of construction steel this week was 3.1692 million tons, an increase of 40,800 tons (+1.30%) from the pre-holiday period, including 30 cities and a total of 89 warehouses.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. soybean production forecast for 2024/2025 in October is 4.582 billion bushels, the market forecast is 4.579 billion bushels, and the forecast in September was 4.586 billion bushels. The U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2024/2025 in October are expected to be 550 million bushels, the market forecast is 549 million bushels, and the forecast in September was 550 million bushels. The U.S. soybean yield for 2024/2025 in October is expected to be 53.1 bushels/acre, the market forecast is 53.1 bushels/acre, and the forecast in September was 53.2 bushels/acre.

2. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released data last Friday showing that there will be no adjustment to the supply and demand data of China's soybean market in 2024/25 this month. The sunny weather in the central and northern parts of the United States is conducive to soybean harvest, and the export orders of new-season US soybeans have increased; Brazil's new-season soybean planting has begun, and the hot and dry weather has led to slow planting progress. It is expected that with the improvement of soil moisture in the later period, the planting progress is expected to accelerate, and the global soybean supply will remain loose.

3. Data from the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce showed that the actual arrival of soybeans in September was 3.1752 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.24%; the forecast for the arrival of soybeans next month is 4.4611 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 35.59%. The actual arrival of palm oil in September was 138,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 52.18%; the forecast for the arrival of palm oil next month is 113,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 81.81%.

4. Data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressers Association (SPPOMA) showed that from October 1 to 10, 2024, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 7.15%, oil extraction rate increased by 0.13%, and output decreased by 6.46%.

5. According to the latest data from the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), India imported 527,314 tons of palm oil in September, 797,482 tons in August; 384,382 tons of soybean oil, 454,639 tons in August; and 152,803 tons of sunflower oil, 284,108 tons in August. India's total vegetable oil imports in September were 1.1 million tons, 1.6 million tons in August.

6. According to the shipping schedule monitoring of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the arrival volume of palm oil in my country is expected to be 200,000 tons, 300,000 tons and 300,000 tons respectively from October to December. At the beginning of October, the domestic palm oil inventory was 530,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 350,000 tons. With less subsequent imports arriving at the port, it is expected that the domestic palm oil inventory will continue to remain low in October and November.

7. According to Wind data, as of the week of October 11, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising pig farming was 305.91 yuan/head, and the profit on September 27 was 368.14 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 47.27 yuan/head, and the profit on September 27 was 185.28 yuan/head.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. The latest data from Longzhong Information shows that as of the week of October 10, the overall output of Chinese styrene factories was 306,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 0.65%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.37%, a decrease of 0.48% from the previous month. As of October 10, domestic PVC social inventory increased by 1.02% from the previous month to 484,100 tons, an increase of 10.90% year-on-year.

Metal Hot News

1. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said on Friday that bauxite exports from its subsidiary Guinea Alumina Company (GAC) have been suspended by customs. Production at the Al Taweelah alumina refinery is proceeding normally and is not expected to be affected in any way.

2. According to SMM statistics, the total domestic lithium carbonate production in September was still running at a high level, down 6% from the previous month and up 38% from the previous year. In October, driven by the continued improvement in downstream demand, the total domestic lithium carbonate production will be stable and slightly upward, and is expected to increase by 1%-2% from the previous month.

3. Data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed that copper inventories increased by 14,860 tons last week, aluminum inventories increased by 388 tons, zinc inventories increased by 734 tons, lead inventories increased by 3,787 tons, nickel inventories decreased by 510 tons, and tin inventories decreased by 434 tons.

4. According to the data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.796 million and 2.809 million respectively, up 12.2% and 14.5% month-on-month, and down 1.9% and 1.7% year-on-year respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of automobiles were 21.47 million and 21.571 million respectively, up 1.9% and 2.4% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate of production and sales narrowed by 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points respectively compared with January to August.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. Alumina hit a new record high during the trading session. Can it continue to rise in the future?

Xinhu Futures analysis pointed out that last week, both the futures and spot prices of alumina rose sharply, among which the futures price soared sharply, and the main contract once exceeded 4,600 yuan/ton. The spot supply is in short supply, and the enthusiasm of alumina manufacturers to participate in futures hedging is weak, which has boosted the morale of futures bulls and exacerbated the rise in futures prices. Affected by the limited release of production capacity, slow increase in output and the continuous transformation of net exports, the recent increase in alumina supply has been limited. Consumption has risen steadily. On the one hand, the electrolytic aluminum plants in the northwest region have winter storage needs, and the long orders are not executed well, so they switch to spot purchases; on the other hand, some electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been put into use in Sichuan and Guizhou recently, which has pushed up the demand for alumina and aggravated the shortage of spot goods. Recently, about 2 million tons of maintenance and new production capacity have been put into use, which may alleviate the current supply shortage to a certain extent. However, as the heating season approaches, the production end may be subject to periodic disturbances such as environmental protection, and the elasticity of supply is still limited. Before the new production capacity is put into use in Guangxi, the tight spot supply of alumina will continue, and the spot price will remain strong, which is still beneficial to futures bulls.

2. Rubber fell by more than 2,000 points last week. How big is the impact of EUDR?

Dadi Futures analysis pointed out that the postponement of EUDR is bearish, but the impact on the market is limited, and it is not the main contradiction of the unilateral market. First of all, the implementation of EUDR is bullish, so the postponement is bearish. Some tire factories have begun to wait and see the progress of EUDR, and their willingness to purchase EUDR rubber has begun to diverge. But this does not affect the global balance, and the main contradiction of this year's rise lies in the reversal of supply and demand in the global balance, which is the market's expectation of continued global destocking. The postponement of EUDR alone cannot reverse this expectation. Secondly, the EUDR rubber premium is about US$300, and its impact on ordinary rubber is even smaller, and the impact on the market is relatively limited. The rough estimate may fluctuate by about 1,000 points, but it is not enough to explain this year's 4,000-point market. Finally, although EUDR is postponed, it is actually difficult to implement, involves too many stakeholders, and there is too much global opposition. Whether it can be successfully implemented in 2026 still needs to be questioned. In addition, the premium is also disappearing over time. If it is finally implemented in 2026, the impact on the market may not be as great as this year.

A look at this week's important futures data and events

1. Due to the Columbus Day holiday in the United States on October 14, the USDA export inspection report originally scheduled for 23:00 on the 14th was postponed to 23:00 on the 15th. In addition, the USDA export net sales report, USDA crop growth report, API crude oil inventory weekly report, and EIA crude oil inventory report were all postponed for one day.

2. At 10:00 on October 14, China's trade account in September was calculated in US dollars. Previously, China's trade account in August was 649.34 billion yuan, and the previous value was 601.9 billion yuan. Huachuang Securities expects exports in September to increase by 5.0% year-on-year in US dollars, and imports to increase by 1.0%.

3. At 23:00 on October 14, the New York Fed’s one-year inflation expectations for September. Previously, due to the continued decline in price pressures, the New York Fed’s one-year inflation expectations in August remained basically stable. The stability of inflation expectations has guiding significance for the Fed to formulate monetary policy. If inflation expectations continue to decline, it may affect the Fed’s pace of interest rate cuts.

4. October 15th is to be determined. ITS/AmSpec/SGS will announce Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1st to 15th. According to AmSpec, an independent inspection agency in Malaysia, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1st to 10th were 490,582 tons, an increase of 18.9% from 412,771 tons exported in the same period last month. Pay attention to whether the growth trend of Malaysia's palm oil exports will continue.

5. At 16:00 on October 15, the IEA released its monthly crude oil market report. Previously, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in September that global oil demand growth has slowed significantly, China and the United States oil demand has slowed, and global economic growth has weakened, leading to a pessimistic market outlook for oil prices. OPEC+ production reduction measures have also It is difficult to change the oversupply situation. If the report continues to maintain this tone, it may put pressure on crude oil prices.

6. On October 17 at 20:15, the ECB announced its interest rate decision and held a press conference at 20:45. Earlier, the minutes of the ECB meeting showed that policymakers were satisfied with the decline in inflation, but they advocated a gradual easing of policies in view of the continued pressure. The market expects that the ECB's interest rate cut in October is almost a foregone conclusion. If this expectation is fulfilled, it will have an impact on the euro and global financial markets.

7. At 20:30 on October 17, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending October 12. Previously, the US employment data slowed down, with the number of initial unemployment claims in the week ending October 5 reaching 258,000, the highest since the week ending August 5, 2023. If the number of initial unemployment claims continues to increase, it may indicate a slowdown in the US job market, which will put pressure on the economic outlook.

8. At 09:30 on October 18, the National Bureau of Statistics released a monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in August 2024, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in China's first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, while the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in second-tier and third-tier cities fell by 0.7% and 0.8% month-on-month respectively.

9. At 10:00 on October 18, China's third quarter GDP annual rate, China's industrial added value above designated size in September, total retail sales of consumer goods and other data were released. Huachuang Securities said that it is expected that the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the third quarter will drop to around 4.5%, the industrial growth rate in September is expected to be around 5.0%, the fixed investment growth rate from January to September is expected to be 3.2%, the real estate sales area growth rate in September is expected to be around -15%, and the social retail growth rate in September is expected to be around 2.9%.

10. Multiple Fed officials delivered speeches. At 3:00 on October 15, Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech on the economic outlook. At 23:30 on October 15, Daly, 2024 FOMC voting member and President of the San Francisco Fed, delivered a speech at an event hosted by New York University and participated in a dialogue. At 1:05 on October 16, Fed Governor Kugler delivered a speech. At 23:00 on October 17, Goolsbee, 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Chicago Fed, delivered a welcome speech at an annual meeting. At 22:00 on October 18, Kashkari, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Minneapolis Fed, delivered a speech.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data