Macroeconomic observation next week: Fed rate cut expectations rise, market focuses on key data

After the release of CPI data this week, the Fed's rate cut trend has attracted much attention. The US PPI data for September showed that inflation has cooled, adding support for the rate cut next month.

There will be no major economic data released in the United States at the beginning of next week, and the market will focus on the September retail sales data on Thursday. Data higher than expected may support the US dollar, and vice versa will put pressure on the US dollar.

Next week's key macroeconomic dynamics:

- The US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for September will be released on Monday night.

- Fed Governor Waller talks about the economic outlook early Tuesday morning.

- Daly, a 2024 FOMC voter, spoke and exchanged views at the event on Tuesday night.

- The monthly rate of the US import price index in September will be announced on Wednesday, and Fed Governor Kugler will speak in the early morning.

- Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivered a welcome speech on Thursday night, and the number of initial jobless claims, the monthly rate of retail sales in September, and the October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will be released that week.

- On Friday, there will be data on Japan's September core CPI annual rate, China's third quarter GDP annual rate, September total retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year, and September industrial added value year-on-year data.

- Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voter, will speak on Friday night.

These events provide the market with economic indicators and policy trends, and investors should pay close attention to make investment decisions.