This week's financial events review: Fed rate cut differences, multiple policy releases and Nobel Prize announcements

This week, there are many major events in the financial field. The US dollar index continues to strengthen, spot gold fell first and then rose, non-US currencies have different trends due to the influence of the US dollar, international oil prices fluctuate greatly, and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have experienced huge shocks.

On the Fed side, the minutes of the September meeting showed that there were differences in the extent of the interest rate cut. The US September CPI data exceeded market expectations, and the anti-inflation process slowed down, affecting the subsequent pace of interest rate cuts. Many Fed officials expressed different views on the interest rate cut. Bridgewater Fund founder Dalio expects the Fed not to cut interest rates again, and the famous economist Roubini warned that if Trump is elected president, the United States will face stagflation. At the same time, the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to the highest level in more than a year, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model expects the US Q3 GDP growth rate to be revised upward.

In terms of fiscal policy, the Ministry of Finance's press conference on October 12 introduced a package of fiscal incremental policies, including increasing support for key groups, increasing debt quotas to resolve hidden debts, and issuing special treasury bonds to supplement the capital of state-owned banks. The National Development and Reform Commission also launched a package of incremental policies to boost the capital market. my country's first monetary policy tool to support the capital market has been implemented, and the central bank has created a "securities, funds, and insurance companies swap facility." The draft law on the promotion of the private economy solicited opinions, and many banks will adjust the interest rates of existing mortgage loans. The joint working group of the central bank and the Ministry of Finance held its first formal meeting, and the futures market ushered in a heavyweight comprehensive document.

In terms of the international situation, on the first anniversary of the Gaza War, Iran is preparing to respond to Israeli retaliation, Hezbollah supports a ceasefire in Lebanon, and the Group of Seven is considering sanctions on Iran's oil industry.

In addition, Tesla held a press conference to launch the unmanned Cybercab, Robovan and an upgraded version of the Optimus robot. Several Nobel Prizes were announced, and artificial intelligence technology won the award in the field of natural sciences as a highlight. Korean writer Han Jiang won the Nobel Prize in Literature. The minutes of the European Central Bank meeting showed that inflation in the eurozone will rise again in the second half of the year, and policymakers retain a "two-way option." OpenAI expects its losses to reach $14 billion in 2026 and is pursuing a special corporate structure to protect itself.