原文标题：China's fiscal stimulus announcement this Saturday could be market moving for bitcoin, analysts say
Original author: Brian McGleenon
Original source: https://www.theblock.co/
Compiled by: Mars Finance, Daisy
China will announce new fiscal stimulus measures on Saturday, analysts say, which could inject fresh liquidity into risk assets including cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
Polymarket’s U.S. presidential election odds now show Trump winning at 55.5% versus Harris at 43.7%, suggesting a Trump victory could lead to a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin.
According to multiple analysts, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market could benefit from China’s next wave of fiscal stimulus measures, which is expected to be announced on Saturday. China’s Finance Minister Lan Fuan will detail the “stepped-up” fiscal stimulus at a press conference on Saturday, the State Council Information Office said.
Bitfinex analysts noted that China’s stimulus plan has become a focus of the cryptocurrency market as the injection of broader new liquidity could benefit risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.
“We expect the massive liquidity injected into the market to be reflected in all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies,” Bitfinex analysts told The Block.
The analysts added that the exact size and scope of China’s stimulus package could still surprise markets, with any expected impact not yet fully priced in. “Particularly if the measures are larger or more aggressive than expected.”
Bitcoin market volatility is expected to increase
Bitfinex analysts added that despite the recent decline in Bitcoin market volatility, the digital asset could react positively to major macroeconomic developments from China. “Even if the stimulus is somewhat expected, the actual announcement could still lead to a short-lived surge in volatility as traders adjust to the details of the stimulus package,” they said.
Alex Tapscott, managing director of Digital Asset Group, also stressed that China’s intervention in financial and real estate markets, aimed at supporting asset prices and stimulating the economy, could drive buying demand in the cryptocurrency market.
“Loosening monetary and fiscal policy will push up risk assets, and cryptocurrencies could benefit as a result,” Tapscott said in an email to The Block.
Beijing announced a series of economic stimulus measures in late September aimed at lowering borrowing costs and spurring economic activity. The measures included cutting existing mortgage rates by 0.5 percentage points and reducing banks’ reserve requirements to encourage lending.
The increase in liquidity from China's fiscal stimulus, coupled with the possibility of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, could boost global risk assets and, in turn, the cryptocurrency market. This is reflected in the MSCI ACWI Index, a global equity index representing large- and mid-cap stocks in 23 developed and 24 emerging markets. The index recently hit a record high following the Fed's first rate cut of the current round on September 18 and China's recent economic stimulus.
Increased global liquidity correlates with Bitcoin bullish trend
In a separate report from ETC Group, analysts noted that global money supply has reached an all-time high, a trend that has historically been associated with Bitcoin bullish trends. They highlighted three key catalysts that could drive Bitcoin higher in the coming months: supply dynamics due to Bitcoin’s halving cycle, a global economic recovery spurred by a shift in monetary policy, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
The report also mentioned the US election, with betting markets such as Polymarket showing Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris with 55.5% odds to 43.7%. Analysts said: "If the US election were held today, a Trump victory could mean a rise of about 10.7% in the price of Bitcoin, while a Harris victory could result in a 10.5% drop in the price of Bitcoin, based on historical sensitivities."
The ETC report noted that Bitcoin performed relatively well following the 2012, 2016, and 2020 U.S. presidential elections, regardless of the winning party. The report still mentions that this is the first time that crypto assets have been involved in actual discussions, so it may have a more significant impact on Bitcoin prices.
According to Bitcoin price data from The Block, Bitcoin has been trading mostly flat over the past 24 hours and is currently trading around $61,277.
