Let me explain the spot premium index in the quotation to avoid misleading people. The reason for calculating the difference between OKX and Coinbase and weighting the USDTUSD exchange rate is logically to observe whether the dominant force in short-term extreme market conditions comes from spot or futures;

As shown in the figure below, the negative premium of USDT has continued to increase in recent times, which will lead to a significant deviation in the result of this spot premium. The focus should be on the changes in short-term premiums.

The long-term negative premium value is currently mainly caused by the negative premium of USDT. Although the premium of USDT can also reflect whether the buying and selling power of the spot market has increased, it is more of a long-term indicator;

When a large amount of USDT is exchanged for USD, its relative premium will decline, which is reflected in the market by seeing many people withdrawing funds. At the same time, Tether may destroy part of USDT in disguise, thereby completing the return of the difference;

Comparing the USDTUSD price with BTCUSD shown in the figure below, we can also clearly find a certain pattern, that is, when the market is good, more stablecoins will flow in, and when stablecoins continue to flow out (the premium is negative), the market spot buying is in a clear weak state;

Therefore, the spot premium index in the quotation will only fluctuate significantly in the short-term pull-up and smash-up, which can help us understand the driving force of the market's dominant force, but from a long-term perspective, its premium index reflects more of the inflow and outflow of the stablecoin market.