Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase recently released a research report analyzing the key factors that may affect the trend of the cryptocurrency market in the next few months, including: Uptober (the trend is bullish in October), the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest rate cuts, Bitcoin spot ETF options approved, and the upcoming Ethereum “Pectra” upgrade.
There is a high chance that the market will go up in October
Entering the fourth quarter, many investors are optimistic that the currency market will return to strength, and look forward to Bitcoin's "October peak season effect (Uptober)" to once again show its power.
The JP Morgan analysis team also mentioned in the report that October has always been a month for the overall cryptocurrency market to rise, and the probability of Bitcoin recording positive returns in October is more than 70%. Analysts said:
Although historical performance does not guarantee that it will be repeated in the future, the "Uptober" theme has been deeply rooted in people's hearts and may affect investment behavior, making Bitcoin expected to have an optimistic performance in October this year.
The Fed's interest rate cuts have yet to have a significant impact on the currency market
Although the Fed started its interest rate cut cycle last month, JPMorgan analysts pointed out that the overall cryptocurrency market has not yet shown the "expected positive effects."
The analysts added that while falling interest rates typically help boost risk assets, the correlation between total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the Fed's benchmark rate is currently just "0.46," suggesting the extent of the impact is limited. They wrote:
Since the Fed announced an interest rate cut on September 18, we have yet to see a “skyrocketing” in cryptocurrency prices due to interest rate cuts.
Analysts added that the market may be waiting for the general economic environment to stabilize further before making significant changes.
In addition, analysts also pointed out that since cryptocurrency only began to rise in the mid-2010s, when interest rates were close to zero for most of the time, the lack of sufficient historical data also made it difficult for the team to predict the response of cryptocurrency to the interest rate cycle, but they Still means:
Stable interest rates, not just low rates, will likely bring the greatest benefit to the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin ETF options trading helps increase market liquidity
Another potential catalyst is the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF option trade. Analysts believe that the introduction of options trading will attract more investors and increase market liquidity.
Through option trading, investors can participate in ETFs in a more flexible way, which is expected to form a positive cycle, enhance market structure, and make digital assets more accessible to institutional investors.
In mid-September this year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) allowed Nasdaq to promote the listing and trading of BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF options, but before it can be officially listed, it must also obtain approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. (OCC), Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approval.
The “Pectra” upgrade is expected to promote the long-term development of Ethereum
The upcoming Ethereum “Pectra” upgrade is also a highlight in the report.
According to reports, this upgrade combines two updates, "Prague" and "Electra", which include more than 30 Ethereum improvement proposals (EIPs), aiming to improve network efficiency, optimize validator operations, and expand account abstraction functions.
While Pectra is expected to improve the performance of Ethereum, we believe that this upgrade is a structural improvement and will have limited impact on price in the short term.
Analysts believe that in the long term, the Pectra upgrade will enhance the efficiency and popularity of Ethereum, but it is unlikely to trigger an immediate surge in the price of Ethereum.
Overall, JPMorgan analysts note that the cryptocurrency market is currently on the sidelines, waiting for clearer general economic or structural catalysts to drive continued growth.
We believe that the cryptocurrency market is gradually becoming more sensitive to economic factors, and we expect major catalysts in the future to drive market growth and attract more retail investors to enter the market and achieve long-term growth.
"The currency market has a high probability of upward trend in October! JPMorgan Chase: There are still "these three major profits" to be fermented." This article was first published on (Block Guest).
