Date: 08-10-2024
Technical Analysis:
$BTC /USDT (Binance) on a 1-day (Daily) timeframe and includes several key technical indicators such as CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta), Open Interest, Funding Rates and other important data points on volume and futures. Let’s explore each technical aspect to predict support, resistance levels and both upside and downside price targets to give you a clear view of Bitcoin’s potential movements.
🔍 1. General chart overview: Trends and price action
Current Price: $62,571.78
24H Price Change: -1.79%
High/Low: $64,478.19 / $62,128 (range of intraday prices)
BTC is currently hovering around $62.5k after facing a 1.79% drop. The chart shows a bearish momentum after a brief rally, signaling some potential short-term bullish warnings. However, there are strong support levels that could prevent BTC from falling further, especially near the psychological $60,000 level.
📈 2. Analyze volume, open interest and CVD
a. Volume (SMA 9)
Volume (122,423M): Trading volume is down from previous days, which suggests that bullish momentum may be weakening a bit. Typically, lower volume during price consolidation can be a sign that big players are waiting for the next big move before increasing their involvement.
b. Cumulative volume delta (CVD)
CVD Spot Price (-64,534K): The negative CVD price shows that sellers have been more aggressive in recent price action, which could be a sign that large players are taking profits or liquidating.
c. Synthetic CVD (Futures Contract)
CVD Composite (-96,202K): This confirms that the broader futures market is also showing selling pressure, meaning a bearish trend reversal could be imminent if demand does not pick up.
d. Open Interest (OI)
Open Interest (84.44K contracts): Open interest is relatively stable, indicating that while new positions are being added, there is no large increase in leverage. This suggests that both bulls and bears are cautious, waiting for a breakout or breakdown.
📊 3. Advanced technical indicators: RSI, ADX and Bid/Ask Delta
a. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI hovers near neutral levels (~55-60): This suggests that BTC is currently neither overbought nor oversold, allowing for volatility in either direction. RSI at this neutral level could indicate that a significant momentum shift could be imminent.
b. ADX (Average Directional Index)
ADX (likely around 20-25): This indicates a lack of strength in the current trend. ADX values below 25 are usually a sign of consolidation, when the market is indecisive. A spike above 25 would signal the start of a new strong trend.
c. Delta Bid/Ask Price (Futures Contract)
Bid/Ask Delta (1,303K): More and more buyers are stepping in at the current price, creating some buying support, which could prevent BTC from falling sharply in the near term.
💥 4. Support and Resistance Levels: Short-Term and Long-Term Predictions
a. Short-term support/resistance levels
Immediate Support: $62,128 (today's low). BTC tested this level briefly but bounced above $62.5k.
Key Support: $60,000 (psychological level). An important level to watch if BTC continues to decline, as this is a historically strong support level. If BTC breaks below this level, expect more selling.
Immediate Resistance: $64,478 (Intraday High). If BTC breaks this level, we could see a recovery attempt back to $65,000.
Key Resistance: $66,000-$67,000 range. This level needs to be cleared on high volume for BTC to reach new highs above $70,000.
Short term forecast:
If BTC holds above $62.5k and breaks the $64.5k resistance, we could see a quick move to $65k - $67k. However, a break below $62k could trigger a deeper drop to $60k and potentially lower if volume increases.
b. Long-term support/resistance levels
Strong Long-Term Support: $55,000 - $57,000. This area has served as important support during previous corrections. If Bitcoin falls below $60,000, expect this range to act as a major accumulation zone.
Key Long-Term Resistance: $70,000 - $75,000. This is the next bullish target if BTC breaks above the short-term resistance levels. This range is important because it aligns with the previous all-time high and breaking above this range would set BTC up for new price discovery opportunities.
Long term forecast:
BTC could rise to $70,000 in a bullish scenario, but if it fails to hold the $60,000 support, the price could drop to $55,000 or even $50,000 in a worst-case scenario.
🔮 5. Strategic Trading Plan: Bulls vs Bears
For short term traders:
Bullish Strategy: Enter a long position if BTC breaks above $64,500 with volume, targeting $65,000 - $67,000. A close above $67,000 would open the door to $70,000. Place a stop loss at $62,000 to limit downside risk.
Bearish Strategy: Enter a short position if BTC drops below $62,000, targeting $60,000 for a quick swing. A drop below $60,000 could signal further downside, targeting $57,000 or $55,000.
For long term investors:
Accumulation Zone: Buy on dips in the $55K - $60K range if BTC corrects. This is a solid accumulation zone for long-term investors looking to ride the next bull run.
Profit Target: If BTC stays above $60,000 for a long time, the next bull run could target $70,000-$75,000 for a long time.
📚 6. Key Observations on the Current Bitcoin Market Situation
Neutral RSI: Provides the possibility for both bullish and bearish potential.
Decreased Volume: It could indicate that BTC is preparing for a big move ahead, but the lack of volume also shows hesitation in the market.
Open interest stability: Neither bulls nor bears have a clear advantage, suggesting we are in a win or lose zone.
CVD negative: Indicates short-term seller dominance, warning buyers not to rush into the market without a clear breakout signal.
🎯 Price Analysis and What to Expect Next
Bullish Target: If BTC breaks and holds above $64.5k, we could see a rally to $67k and if the rally continues, the price could even touch $70k.
Bearish Target: If BTC drops below $62,000, expect a test of $60,000 and possibly $57,000 or $55,000 in a larger market correction scenario.
📚 Final Thoughts: Navigate BTC/USDT Like a Pro! 📚
The current setup for BTC/USDT represents a balanced risk-reward scenario. Bulls should watch for a breakout above $64,500, while bears could benefit from a break below $62,000. With indicators like RSI, CVD, and Open Interest signaling caution, this is a crucial moment for Bitcoin.
Pay attention to volume, support/resistance levels, and funding rates to better predict the next big move. Whether you are a short-term trader or a long-term holder, having a solid risk management plan is key to navigating the volatile crypto market!
