Regarding A-shares, I have seen many people recently saying that the A-shares will rise to 6,000-8,000 points, or even 10,000 points. So awesome? I still remember the first time I came into contact with A-shares when I was 19 years old, in the summer of 2007, when I was a junior in Nanchang. My economics teacher recommended me to buy Jiangxi Copper to earn tuition for my senior year. At that time, the Shanghai Composite Index was more than 6,000 points. More than a decade has passed, and looking back, I was amazed that that year was the highest point in the history of the Chinese stock market since its opening, and I can never go back.

I also clearly remember that one night in October of that year, I was eating in the school cafeteria and watching the news broadcast on TV. It was telling the resumes of Xi, Li Keqiang, and others. They had already been elected as the Standing Committee. They were determined to be the next leadership team. After 2012, when I saw that the entire economic situation was beginning to decline, I recalled the news in 2007 that the crown prince was about to take office, and I understood that the conservatives were about to take power, releasing a long-term negative for the next decade. Therefore, that night in 2007 became the biggest turning point for the Chinese stock market, and it has been declining all the way since then.

For a long time, the reason why I am not optimistic about A-shares is very simple, that is, it is due to national conditions. The core of a country's economy depends on the degree of openness of its policies. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the most typical sharp contrast is the Deng vs. Mao era, and the Deng vs. Xi era. The two leaders after Deng implemented Deng's policy of focusing on economic construction and opening up, so the economy has been steadily moving upward. In the Mao era, the country was closed to the outside world and tough on foreign countries, and the Chinese people lived a hard life of hunger. In the Xi era, many things in the Mao era are being replicated. In the past 12 years, the tough policy of foreign wolf warriors has gradually moved European and American capital away from China. The country is living off its old capital, the economy has plummeted, the rich have fled, the middle class has returned to poverty, the unemployment rate in all walks of life has increased sharply, and the bottom life is difficult.

Normal countries improve the housing conditions of their citizens by developing their economy. However, China develops its economy through housing. This is putting the cart before the horse. Today, foreign policy, the most fundamental factor in stimulating sustainable growth of the national economy, has not changed, but loosening the market to pull up the stocks is a poison to quench thirst in the long run. Behind the glamorous and false prosperity, there is rottenness and emptiness inside. In essence, it is an internal circulation activity of redistributing the interests of the middle class and above elites. I dare to assert that the harvest after this wave of bull market will be more tragic than the "bull market" in 2015.


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