American computer scientist Nick Szabo is currently leading on Polymarket to be named Satoshi Nakamoto in the upcoming HBO documentary that claims to reveal the creator of Bitcoin, beating out cryptographer Len Sassaman.
Oddsmakers on Polymarket have pegged a 27.9% chance that Szabo, the inventor of failed cryptocurrency network Bit Gold, will be named as Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator by HBO's documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, followed by Sassaman at 14% and Blockstream CEO Adam Back at 4.3%.
Sassaman initially led with a probability as high as 68% shortly after the betting platform opened the market on October 4.
HBO's favorite candidate to reveal is said to be Satoshi Nakamoto. Source: Polymarket
But those possibilities were reduced when the documentary's producer, Cullen Hoback, told CNN on October 7 that he had come face-to-face with the person he thought was the real Satoshi Nakamoto, which could rule out Sassaman since he died in 2011.
“We made a compelling case […] and I think their reaction was probably more revealing than the evidence itself.”
“It is important for the public to know who [Satoshi] might be, especially if they are still involved,” Hoback added.
Sassaman's wife, Meredith Patterson, also told DL News on October 8 that HBO did not approach her to discuss the documentary.
Hoback's stated confrontation with the person he chose to be Nakamoto could also rule out Hal Finney — an American software developer who received the first Bitcoin transaction from Nakamoto and died in 2014. Finney currently has a 2.7% probability on Polymarket.
Imprisoned software programmer Paul Le Roux has a 2.8% probability, while billionaire Elon Musk, who claims to have been Nakamoto Craig Wright, and former Satoshi suspects Dorian Nakamoto and David Kleiman have low probabilities.
Polymarket's “Other/Multiple” option currently has the highest probability at 37%.
The Bit Gold network, from Polymarket's new top contender Szabo, never launched. However, it is considered a precursor and influence to Bitcoin because it includes a peer-to-peer network, proof-of-work mining, and cryptographic concepts that were later built on Bitcoin.
These links have led many to believe that Szabo is Nakamoto, but he has denied claims that he invented Bitcoin.
Hoback confirmed in an October 5 post on X that his documentary will “mention a specific name” — a possible hint that he thinks Bitcoin was launched by a single person.
Source: Cullen Hoback
The HBO documentary will air at 2:00 a.m. UTC on October 9.
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