1. CME Federal Reserve Watch shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 83.5%, and the market remains concerned about the future direction of monetary policy.
2. A U.S. bankruptcy judge approved FTX's reorganization plan, with about 94% of creditors supporting the plan. FTX plans to reorganize two years after its bankruptcy.
About 94% of creditors in the category of "internet customer equity claims" voted in favor of the reorganization plan, which are valued at about $6.83 billion. However, the plan was criticized by Sunil Kavuri, a representative of FTX's largest creditor group. Kavuri said the estate should be paid in kind in cryptocurrency rather than in dollar value.
3. Crypto market observers say Bitcoin’s “Up October” trend is resuming in October and may be bullish.
4. JPMorgan analysts pointed out that the crypto market is in a wait-and-see state, waiting for clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts.
JPMorgan analysts have pointed out several key factors that could impact the cryptocurrency market in the coming months, citing technical, geopolitical, and structural events that could drive price volatility. In a research note published on Monday, the analysts discussed the impact of seasonal "Uptober" trends, interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, approval of Bitcoin ETF options, and Ethereum's upcoming Pectra upgrade. A key conclusion of the report is the historically strong October trend, commonly known as "Uptober," with more than 70% of October Bitcoin returns positive. "While past performance is not predictive of future performance, we believe the popularity of 'Uptober' could influence behavior and lead to positive Bitcoin performance this October," the analysts wrote. Despite the Fed's recent rate cut, the analysts noted that the broader cryptocurrency market has not seen the expected positive impact; while a rate cut environment is generally supportive of risky assets, the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market cap and the federal funds rate remains weak at 0.46; since the Fed's rate cut on September 18, we have not seen a significant increase in cryptocurrency prices in response to the rate cut, and the market may be waiting for more sustained stability before making a decisive shift. Furthermore, the analysts acknowledged that it is difficult to accurately predict how cryptocurrencies will respond to interest rate cycles due to a lack of historical data. Another potential catalyst is the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETF options trading. Analysts expect that this could deepen market liquidity and attract new participants. This development could kick-start a positive feedback loop, enhancing market structure and making digital assets more accessible to institutional investors. The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, dubbed “Pectra,” is also seen as a major development. The analysts said: “While Pectra is expected to have a transformative impact on Ethereum’s functionality, we believe this upgrade is more structural than a direct price catalyst. The long-term impact of Pectra will be to improve Ethereum’s operational efficiency and adoption, but is unlikely to trigger a short-term surge in Ether prices.” The analysts concluded that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, waiting for clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts to drive continued growth.“We continue to see the crypto ecosystem becoming increasingly sensitive to macro factors, so we are awaiting the next major catalyst to drive ecosystem development and increased retail participation for long-term growth,” they said.
5. 21Shares called on EU regulators to unify ETF rules to address investor confusion caused by legal divisions.
Crypto investment firm 21Shares has called on the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) to develop standardized regulatory rules for the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) funds, according to an Oct. 7 statement. The company noted that the current approach lacks consistency, leading to confusion for retail and institutional investors across Europe. For example, Germany and Malta allow UCITS funds to include cryptocurrencies, while Luxembourg and Ireland do not. Mandy Chiu, head of financial product development at 21Shares, explained that this fragmented approach limits the ability of retail investors to fully leverage cryptocurrencies. She added: "By providing a consistent set of rules across Europe, ESMA can open up new ways for investors to diversify and add value to their portfolios in a regulated environment designed to protect investors." Chiu also noted that clear and consistent rules will help stabilize the market while promoting the growth of the cryptocurrency industry. Therefore, 21Shares urged ESMA to develop comprehensive guidelines that would allow all EU member states to invest indirectly in cryptocurrencies. According to 21Shares, this would protect investors and broaden access to cryptocurrency investments. Notably, 21Shares’ call for regulatory clarity comes as ESMA reviews responses to its recent consultation on the inclusion of new asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, in UCITS funds.
6. If Trump is elected in the United States, Robinhood’s Chief Legal Officer may become the main contender for SEC Chairman.
Robinhood Chief Legal Officer Dan Gallagher will be the leading candidate to chair the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) if Donald Trump regains the presidency, according to more than a dozen former top regulators, lobbyists and securities lawyers. It's unclear whether Gallagher wants to leave Robinhood. Gallagher said he loves his job and "I am honored to be mentioned when discussing who will be the next SEC chairman." But there is no doubt that Gallagher has clear objections to the direction of the SEC. He said that if he had been chairman for the past few years, there would have been tailor-made rules that would have provided crypto exchanges and brokers with “at least a basic registration system” as the industry has long sought. the way". Even so, Gallagher believes legislation is still needed. Gallagher is a former member of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is known for his affability and political skills. Other potential SEC chair candidates circulating on Wall Street under the Trump administration include former Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Chris Giancarlo, known online as "CryptoDad"; former SEC general counsel Robert Stebbins, now Willkie Partner at law firm Farr & Gallagher; and current SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who holds a Republican seat on the agency’s five-member committee. However, reports say that for some Republicans, whether Gallagher can serve as chairman has always been a matter of when, not if. -Original text
7. After achieving record revenue in the second quarter, FalconX is actively looking for acquisition opportunities to cope with future market consolidation.
Digital asset trading and brokerage firm FalconX is looking for acquisition opportunities as it prepares for an expected flurry of deals in the industry. Raghu Yarlagadda, co-founder and CEO of FalconX, said in an interview that as more institutional players enter the market and regulations tighten, the cost of cryptocurrency business will rise, which in turn will trigger a wave of growth in 2025 "Consolidation wave". Yarlagadda added: “Currently, we are actively exploring potential acquisition opportunities and assessing relevant industries and key players within them. A spokesperson for FalconX said the company has seen a significant increase in potential acquisition opportunities. They added FalconX is looking to acquire high-quality smaller companies focused on institutional infrastructure, data and analytics, tokenization, and to expand its trading team in 2025. FalconX reported record second-quarter revenue, up 2.5% year-over-year. times. A spokesman for the company said derivatives trading revenue increased nearly three times. But they declined to disclose specific figures. Founded in 2018 and headquartered in San Mateo, California, FalconX was valued at $8 billion in a 2022 funding round of $150 million. The company is backed by investors including Tiger Global, GIC and B Capital and has more than 600 institutional clients, according to its website. -Original text
8. US agencies warn of the threat posed to critical infrastructure by new cryptocurrency ransomware Trinity.
On October 4, the U.S. Department of Health Cybersecurity Coordination Center (HC3) issued an alert, revealing a new type of ransomware targeting sensitive data - Trinity. According to HC3, attackers use phishing emails, malicious websites, and software vulnerabilities to trick victims into installing the ransomware on their computers. Once installed, the software searches for and collects sensitive information from the computer and sends it to the hacker, while using complex algorithms to encrypt the victim's files, making them inaccessible. Subsequently, the Trinity ransomware will generate a ransom note, threatening the victim that their data has been extracted and encrypted, requiring payment of a ransom in exchange for a decryption key, and limiting the victim to 24 hours to pay with cryptocurrency, otherwise they will face the risk of data leakage. HC3 warned that the Trinity ransomware mainly targets critical infrastructure, especially healthcare providers, and revealed that at least seven organizations have been attacked, of which at least one U.S. healthcare entity has become a victim. -Original text
9. Riot Platforms says Bitcoin miners are open to AI opportunities if there is a right deal.
Riot Platforms CEO Jason Les said in an interview with Bernstein that the bitcoin miner would be open to artificial intelligence opportunities if the right deal came along. Les cited the deal between Core Scientific and CoreWeave as an example, but stressed that the company would not simply chase the hype of artificial intelligence.
10. The CEO of cryptocurrency custody company Copper plans to resign, and the company may face management changes.
Dmitry Tokarev, CEO of cryptocurrency custodian Copper, plans to step down from day-to-day operations and resign as CEO, according to two people familiar with the matter.
11. Grayscale transferred approximately 3,374 ETH to the Coinbase Prime address, which attracted market attention.
About 7 minutes ago, Grayscale transferred a total of approximately 3,374 ETH to the Coinbase Prime hot wallet address, worth approximately US$8.32 million.
12. Solana dominates the issuance of new tokens in 2024, and the market is full of expectations for its future performance.
As we head into the final quarter of 2024, all eyes will be on Solana to see if it can maintain its lead in new token issuance. Below is an excerpt from The Block’s data and insights newsletter. -Original
13. Ethereum’s new proposal may increase network throughput by 50%, which may enhance its competitiveness with other blockchains.
Ethereum’s new upgrade could increase the network’s throughput by 50%, bolstering its ability to compete with speed-focused blockchains like Solana.
14. Data shows that most indicators in the crypto market declined in September, with total on-chain transaction volume decreasing by 13%.
According to a post by The Block's research director @lars0x, most crypto market indicators fell in September, with adjusted total on-chain transaction volume falling 13% to $328 billion (BTC: -10.2%, ETH: -17.8%). Adjusted stablecoin on-chain transaction volume fell 30.8% to $832 billion, and the issued supply increased 1.3% to $150.4 billion, of which USDT accounted for 78.3% and USDC accounted for 17.6%: BTC miner revenue fell 4.2% to $815.3 million in September, while ETH staker revenue fell 4% to $209.4 million. A total of 26,874 ETH were destroyed in August, equivalent to $68.2 million. Since the implementation of EIP-1559 in early August 2021, a total of 4.39 million ETH have been destroyed, equivalent to $12.4 billion. Monthly NFT market transaction volume on Ethereum fell 22% to $96.1 million. Legal CEX spot volume fell 17.4% to $724.6 billion in September, with net monthly flows of +$1.13 billion for all BTC spot ETFs. Bitcoin futures open interest increased 16%, and Ethereum futures open interest increased 13%. BTC monthly futures volume fell 16.1% to $1.11 trillion, and ETH monthly futures volume fell 20.8% to $465.5 billion. CME Bitcoin futures open interest increased 14.3% to $10.3 billion (ADV fell 4.7% to $4.8 billion). Bitcoin monthly options volume fell 28.1% to $38.6 billion, and ETH monthly options volume fell 37.5% to $9.7 billion. -Original text
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