What Was Expected in the First Week of October, What Happened?
To start, you can review my article at this [link] for our predictions and possibilities entering October. On Wednesday, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released, potentially impacting the markets.
I previously noted that the pivot level was around the 60k range and expected a drop in the first week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a move towards the 58-59k range, with a subsequent rise.
BTC opened the week at 65,800 and the month at 63,300, dropping as low as 59,850. Currently, it's moving around 63k. Unless the price stays above 64k and then 66k, my expectations for a significant upward move remain low. I expect a pullback from the 64k region towards 58-59k, followed by an upward movement.
This week’s implied volatility range is 56k-70k. Last week’s volatility was lower than the implied range, so we may see a more volatile market this week. For October 11, put contracts are concentrated around the 60-62k range, while the highest call contracts are at 66k. The put/call ratio is 1.06, suggesting the market could move in either direction without a dominant trend.
ETH has continued to underperform BTC this week. ETH is down 13% from its weekly open and trading 4% below its monthly open. Since the drop in August, ETH has remained within the 2100-2800 range.
The implied volatility range for this week is 2150-2750. ETH is already up 3%, testing the EQ level of the range. I expect a possible decline followed by a rally. If it moves directly above 2600, I’m considering call contracts.
For October 11, put contracts are concentrated around 2400, while call contracts are strongest around 2800. The put/call ratio stands at 0.41, indicating a predominantly positive outlook for the price.
ETHBTC remains bearish. However, it’s still holding above the 0.0384 support level I set. Until we see closures above the purple box on the chart, I’m not particularly optimistic. If it breaks below this support, we might see movement toward the lower green line.
This week, I’m considering a 2700 call for October 25 and a 3200 call for the end of November.
We’ve reached the end of this weekly update. Here’s hoping the days ahead bring the start of a profitable upward trend. Wishing everyone a good day.
#BTCUptober #FOMC_Meeting_Results #SECAppealRipple #OptionsTrading #BTCUpdate
