The fact that the United States fabricated data and that these data will have an impact on the market are two non-contradictory things.

Market investors do not believe that these economic data from the United States are true, but as stakeholders in the market, they need to understand the direction of such expectation management, that is, where the direction of the baton points. This is a code word for trading to make the chaotic financial market have an orderly "flow".

Once such a flow appears, it will drag market funds in the direction expected by the Federal Reserve.

The economic data released by the United States, as well as the interest rate hikes and cuts by the Federal Reserve, are all part of the baton.

The Federal Reserve uses the baton to strengthen and change market expectations, so that market expectations are always guided in the direction of the baton.

This is actually the core of expectation management.

This is why, even if the market knows that these data are false, they still have a huge influence.

From this perspective, we need to use these published data as a window to explore the true intentions of the Federal Reserve's baton.

For example, in the first half of the year, the United States always released good non-farm data first, and then revised it down significantly two months later, which shows that the United States is beautifying the data, and it also shows that the Federal Reserve has not yet planned to cut interest rates.

Then from the beginning of August, the United States released bad non-farm data, which shows that the Federal Reserve is ready to cut interest rates.

As a result, in September, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected.

Here, we must also avoid reversing cause and effect.

It is not that the Federal Reserve released bad economic data in order to cut interest rates, and we can say that the US economy is actually very good.

To be precise, the United States has stopped pretending and directly released slightly more real data, which provides some reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.