Since the emergence of Bitcoin, there have been ongoing debates and assumptions about the identity of its mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. The claim that an upcoming HBO documentary will reveal Satoshi’s true identity has caused these discussions to flare up again. Evaluating this situation, the prediction market Polymarket has launched an interesting betting process. It suggested that HBO’s documentary will reveal Satoshi’s identity. Then, Polymarket started accepting bets on who the documentary will introduce as the real Satoshi. Many famous candidates stand out in these predictions. According to Polymarket’s betting results dated October 8, 2024, Len Sassaman stands out as Satoshi with a 45% chance. Sassaman, a cryptographer and privacy advocate, had long been considered a potential candidate due to his closeness to the cypherpunk community and deep knowledge. Unfortunately, Sassaman passed away in 2011. Many people think he is a strong candidate due to his experience in cryptography.
Hal Finney comes in second with a 15% chance. Finney is known as one of the early adopters of Bitcoin and is credited with receiving the first Bitcoin transaction from Nakamoto. Speculation is growing about Finney’s role in the early days of the cryptocurrency, with some suggesting he knew his real identity or was acting under the pseudonym Satoshi.
Other Candidates and Claims
Other candidates include Nick Szabo and Adam Back, with a 2% and 7% chance respectively. Szabo is a computer scientist known for his work on digital contracts. Some suggest that Adam Back, the CEO of Blockstream, is the creator of Bitcoin. Back is known for his contributions to cryptography and Bitcoin mining as the inventor of Hashcash. However, betting markets are skeptical of Szabo’s claim that he is Nakamoto. While Back’s chances of being the inventor of Bitcoin seem lower, there is speculation that he could also be Satoshi. Craig Wright’s claim that he is Satoshi is only rated at a 1% chance; this claim is largely rejected by the Bitcoin community because it lacks convincing evidence.
Finally, 38% of bettors suggest that the documentary could name more than one person. Another possibility is that HBO will not reveal who Satoshi is. The crypto world continues to speculate without a clear answer as the release date of the HBO documentary approaches.