Looking back at history, the bloodbath of the 94 incident in 2017 kicked off a violent bull market. The 312 liquidity crisis in 2020 kicked off a bull market, and the bull market continued after Bitcoin was cut in half on 512 in 2021. In 2022, retail investors, project owners, miners, institutions, and exchanges were killed, five consecutive kills. After the bottom was consolidated, the market started to grow in conjunction with the Fed's interest rate cut.
According to the law, Bitcoin rises every four years. So far, it seems that this law has not been violated. What is the curse? That’s right, the halving leads to a smaller and smaller output each year. The cost for miners to mine one Bitcoin has increased significantly. The purpose of pulling up the price is to relieve the pressure on miners and to attract retail investors to enter the market.
The bull market often arrives before you know it. What does it mean by "unknowingly"? It means that before you know it, the bull has already climbed halfway up the mountain. At this time, you may want to wait for the bull to turn around and eat some grass before getting on the train, after all, the stock has risen so much. However, the bull not only does not turn around, but it seems to have full energy and does not need any supplies, and keeps climbing up.
At this time, you may not be able to hold back your temper any longer and rush forward bravely, but the result is often counterproductive. At this time, the Ox feels that it needs a nap.
A bull market often appears when most people feel that this market is not worth staying in. The market moves so slowly every day, going back and forth on just a few points, which makes most people lose patience and therefore they no longer care about the market.
The emergence of a bull market is often when the overall environment improves, the capital begins to be sufficient, and smart money begins to flow in. The emergence of a bull market is often when most people feel desperate and feel that there is no hope for this market.
The emergence of a bull market is always when most people leave the market, and when these people begin to return to the market. The emergence of a bull market is a manifestation of a combined force. This combined force comes from the action of internal and external factors.
The two forces combine to form an unstoppable torrent. The external factor is that there is enough money in the market, and these funds need to find the direction with the least resistance and the greatest trend. When more and more funds begin to pour into this track, the bull market can start.
So what is the trend with the least resistance? For example, if the money supply is loose, will there be a large amount of money pouring into the real estate market as in the past five to ten years?
The answer is of course no, because this market has great resistance and does not conform to the trend. Going against the trend will result in half the result with twice the effort. Only by going with the trend can you achieve twice the result with half the effort.
Let me talk about some common characteristics of a bull market in the cryptocurrency world.
First, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have surpassed their historical highs from the previous bull market, which is a sign that a big bull market has begun.
Second, the Jiushen Index ahr999 is above 10, the ahr999X index is below 0.2, and Jiangzhuoer's 60-day consecutive increase index is above 80%. These are basically bull tops.
Third, the daily K-line price of Bitcoin and Ethereum deviated from the 60-day moving average by more than 30%, and the 60-day moving average continued to rise. This shows that people who entered the market at different time periods have made profits.
Fourth, the 30-day, 60-day, 120-day and 200-day moving averages are dispersed, indicating that the chips are no longer concentrated and distribution has begun. Everyone is making money, which is very dangerous.
Fifth, the exchanges hold a lot of activities, with basically 1-2 activities a month. Each project owner launches projects while they have money and strives to sell them at a good price.
6. Your circle of friends is full of people showing off their earnings, and the group is full of myths about getting rich quickly. You have also made some money, and you are excited and want to get rich like them.
7. The market value of Bitcoin has dropped to about 30%, because the market value of altcoins has risen to hundreds of billions, which is dangerous at this time.
8. The transaction volume is very high, and the transaction volume can reach hundreds of billions of US dollars a day.
9. The Ethereum Foundation began to sell coins frequently, and their wallet assets began to be sold on exchanges.
10. There is constant good news in the market, one after another, there are endless stories to tell, and each story is different.
The bull market in the cryptocurrency world generally lasts from 6 months to 2 years. For example, from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, the price of Bitcoin rose from less than $1,000 to nearly $20,000, and the bull market lasted for more than a year. In early 2019, the price of Bitcoin gradually rose from $3,000 to a high of $14,000 in June, and the bull market lasted for nearly 6 months.
It should be noted that the rise and fall of digital currency prices is very unstable. The greater the price rises, the more likely it is to adjust, and the greater the adjustment. Therefore, the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle cannot continue to rise, and there will definitely be optimizations and ups and downs.
The duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle is related to various factors, such as market demand, policy control, technological innovation, community activities, etc. The following is a specific analysis:
1. Market demand: The rise and fall of digital currency prices largely depends on market demand, especially the mentality of investors. If the market demand is strong and a large amount of funds flow into the digital currency market, the price will naturally rise. On the contrary, if the market demand is insufficient, the price will also fall. Therefore, market demand is one of the important factors that determine the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.
2. Policy control: Policy control also has a great impact on the digital currency market. Different countries and regions have different policy controls and different attitudes towards digital currencies. Some countries have taken strict regulatory measures on digital currencies, such as banning ICOs and shutting down digital currency exchanges, which will lead to a short-term decline in the digital currency market. On the other hand, some countries have adopted integrated policies for digital currencies, such as allowing digital currency trading and promoting digital currency payments, which will drive the rise of the digital currency market. Therefore, policy control is also one of the important factors affecting the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.
3. Technological innovation: The digital currency market is a market driven by technological innovation. With the continuous advancement of technology, the development of digital currency is also accelerating. For example, Bitcoin uses blockchain applications. The emergence of this technology has made digital currency more secure and decentralized, leading the rise of the digital currency market. Therefore, technological innovation is also one of the important factors affecting the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.
4. Community activities: The community of the digital currency market is also very active, and the impact of street activities, discussions and promotions on the digital currency market cannot be ignored. For example, some communities have launched promotion activities for digital currencies, which will attract more people to master digital currencies, thereby increasing market demand and prices. Therefore, community activities are also one of the important factors affecting the duration of the bull market in the cryptocurrency circle.
At the beginning of a bull market, the market will rise first, then rise, and finally rise again. After the initial stage of a bull market, there will often be more plunges, slow rises, rapid plunges, and continued slow rises.
The previous two rounds of bull markets were constantly rising, accompanied by multiple crashes. In 2017, there were more crashes and slower rises. In 2021, there were fewer crashes and faster rises. Therefore, if you want a healthy long-term bull market, you still need to crash more and clean up your leverage. It is healthier to clean it up. If there is no crash, and it goes straight up, I will be worried. Will the peak of this bull market be relatively low? Will there be a violent cleanup at any time?
In the bull market, there are many crashes. This means that the price of Bitcoin will be higher in the end. So don't be impatient. If there is a sudden crash in the next few days to clear the leverage, it is also a very typical bull market feature. After all, it has broken through the previous historical high. It has entered a big bull market, so why are the leeks still panicking? Hold the spot and welcome the new high.
In short, the bull market is far from over, and the moment when all the coins will rise together has not yet arrived. Don’t wait until you look back and start to regret why you didn’t hold on to this coin or that coin, and then regret it after you sold it out for a short period of time. When the market is over, the leeks will understand that the bear market is coming.
The four most valuable words in the world are: faith, perseverance, persistence, and gratitude. People with faith have opportunities, people with perseverance change themselves, people with persistence change their destiny, and people with gratitude retain blessings.
