Futures Morning Rush-Audio Version

Female Mandarin Version Download mp3

Macro News

1. Data from the Ministry of Transport show that on October 1, 2024 (the first day of the National Day holiday), the total cross-regional personnel flow in society was 331.268 million, a month-on-month increase of 48.1%, an increase of 0.9% over the same period in 2023, and an increase of 32.8% over the same period in 2019.

2. According to US media AXIOS, Israeli officials said that Israel will launch a "major retaliation" against Iran's missile attack within a few days, and the target may be oil production facilities in Iran.

3. Russian troops continue to advance and win victories on the northern and southern fronts of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky bluntly stated that the situation on the front is "very, very difficult"; in order to cope with the war in Ukraine, Russia will recruit more troops and increase its defense budget next year by nearly 30%. For several months, the Russian army has been slowly advancing northward, trying to occupy the Donbas region, including Donetsk and Luhansk.

4. According to CCTV News, the China Southern Power Grid learned that on October 1, the Meizhou Pumped Storage Power Station in Guangdong officially entered the electricity spot market and traded all its electricity. This is also the first time that my country's pumped storage power station has independently participated in electricity market transactions, opening up a new path for the market-oriented operation of pumped storage under the new power system.

5. According to reports from multiple Israeli media outlets citing military sources, the Israeli Air Force base was hit in the missile attack launched by Iran on Israel on the evening of October 1, local time. However, Israeli military sources said that the Israeli military believed that all missiles that hit the Israeli Air Force base were "ineffective" and had no impact on the Israeli Air Force's next move. Fighter planes, drones and other military aircraft, as well as ammunition and key infrastructure were not damaged. The Israeli Air Force "also continued operations in the hours after the attack, carrying out large-scale strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, while providing support to Israeli ground forces in southern Lebanon." According to other regional media reports, buildings at the Israeli Air Force base were damaged in the attack.

6. Lebanon's Hezbollah announced on the afternoon of October 2 local time that its fighters launched an attack on Israel's military base in Ami'ad with "large" rockets earlier that day, causing "direct casualties". Ami'ad is located in northern Israel, close to the Lake of Galilee, more than 50 kilometers away from the temporary border between Lebanon and Israel.

Global futures market changes

1. International oil prices rose across the board, with the November contract of U.S. crude up 1.69% to $71.01 per barrel, and the December contract of Brent crude up 1.5% to $74.66 per barrel.

2. International precious metal futures closed with mixed gains and losses, with COMEX gold futures down 0.38% to $2,680.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.18% to $32.115 per ounce.

3. Most of the base metals in London closed higher, with LME copper futures up 1.24% to $10,103/ton, LME zinc futures up 1.54% to $3,195/ton, LME nickel futures up 2.65% to $18,180/ton, LME aluminum futures up 1.36% to $2,684/ton, LME tin futures down 0.23% to $33,800/ton and LME lead futures up 2.09% to $2,152.5/ton.

4. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed with mixed gains and losses, with soybean futures down 0.24% at 1054.75 cents per bushel; corn futures up 0.64% at 431.75 cents per bushel, and wheat futures up 2.38% at 613.25 cents per bushel.

Black hot news

1. According to China Securities Journal, some securities analysts said that the new policy is expected to stabilize the real estate industry in first-tier cities, help stabilize the market and expectations, and pave the way for the real estate market to stabilize. This relaxation may be just the beginning, and it is expected that the purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will be further relaxed in the future.

2. According to Mysteel, on October 2, Liuzhou Iron and Steel's ex-factory prices in Guangxi region: rebar increased by 50 yuan/ton, and wire coil increased by 30 yuan/ton.

3. China Index Academy released the September 100-city housing price index. In September, new residential buildings rose by 0.14% month-on-month, with Shanghai and Chengdu leading the growth. Affected by the entry of high-quality projects in some cities, new home prices rose, transaction volume weakened, and second-hand home owners traded price for volume. It is expected that the real estate market will improve marginally in the fourth quarter, but the bottoming trend will continue in the short term.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. Data from the CME official website showed that as of the week of September 27, 2024, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory was 3.509 million bushels, an increase of 17.36% from 2.990 million bushels in the previous week and 2.845 million bushels in the same period last year.

2. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture said on Wednesday that Ukraine's grain exports in 2024/25 will be 10.65 million tons, compared with 6.68 million tons in the same period last year. Among them, 6.2 million tons of wheat, 2.8 million tons of corn and 1.3 million tons of barley. From October 1 to 2, Ukraine has exported 197,000 tons of grain, compared with only 7,000 tons in the same period last year.

3. According to the expected values ​​of foreign media surveys, as of the week of September 26, 2024, the U.S. soybean net export sales in the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to be 1 million to 1.6 million tons, and the soybean net export sales in the 2025/26 marketing year are expected to be 0 to 50,000 tons; the U.S. corn net export sales in the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to be 600,000 to 1 million tons, and the corn net export sales in the 2025/26 marketing year are expected to be 0 to 50,000 tons.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that Saudi Arabia said that if OPEC+ ignores production restrictions, oil prices may fall to $50 per barrel. OPEC said in response to the report that "the statements in the report are "completely inaccurate and misleading." (Previous report: According to the Wall Street Journal, the Saudi oil minister said that if the so-called "cheaters" within OPEC+ do not comply with the agreed production restrictions, oil prices may fall to $50 per barrel. According to OPEC representatives, other oil-producing countries interpreted these statements as a veiled threat from Saudi Arabia that if other countries do not comply with the organization's agreement, Saudi Arabia is willing to launch a price war to maintain its market share. ​)

2. The latest data from the UAE Fujairah Oil Industry Zone shows that as of the week of September 30, the total inventory of refined oil at the UAE Fujairah Port was 15.001 million barrels, an increase of 366,000 barrels from a week ago. Among them, light distillate oil inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 5.188 million barrels, medium distillate oil inventories increased by 813,000 barrels to 2.313 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels to 7.5 million barrels.

3. The UAE Energy Minister said on Tuesday that he was concerned about the level of oil and gas investment, and that the current level could not meet global demand in the medium and long term. OPEC+ is doing a "noble" job, even though they do not produce most of the supply, they work hard to balance supply and demand and encourage investment. OPEC+ is not perfect, it is a group of 20 diverse partners, but our goal is to achieve a balanced market.

4. According to data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ), the average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 80.4% in the week ending September 28, compared with 75.4% in the week ending September 21. In the week ending September 28, Japan's commercial crude oil inventories fell by 250,000 kiloliters to 11.23 million kiloliters, naphtha inventories rose by 180,000 kiloliters to 1.39 million kiloliters, gasoline inventories fell by 14,000 kiloliters to 1.57 million kiloliters, and kerosene inventories rose by 150,000 kiloliters to 2.44 million kiloliters.

5. OPEC held a JMMC meeting and issued a statement after the meeting. During the meeting, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia confirmed that they had achieved full compliance and (production cut) compensation in accordance with the submitted September schedule. The three countries reiterated their firm commitment to maintain full compliance and cut compensation for the remainder of the agreement. The JMMC emphasized the critical importance of achieving full compliance and production cut compensation. It will continue to monitor compliance with the production adjustments agreed upon at the meeting in June this year.

6. EIA report: Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 700,000 barrels to 382.6 million barrels last week, an increase of 0.2%. Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.9 million barrels to 416.9 million barrels, an increase of 0.9%. Commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.628 million barrels/day last week, an increase of 171,000 barrels/day from the previous week. U.S. crude oil exports fell by 19,000 barrels/day to 3.878 million barrels/day last week.

Metal Hot News

1. According to Xinhua News Agency, the price of gold denominated in RMB has been rising since the beginning of this year. Data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange shows that in the first nine months, the AU99.99 gold spot transaction in the Shanghai Gold Exchange has risen by 24%, setting a record for the largest increase in the same period in the past five years.

2. Market news: The London Metal Exchange is expected to approve the establishment of a delivery warehouse in Hong Kong before the end of 2024.

3. U.S. companies added more jobs than expected last month, which defies other indicators that show a cooling labor market. Data showed that private sector payrolls increased by 143,000 in September, after an upwardly revised 103,000 increase in August. The increase in payrolls represented a rebound after five consecutive months of slowing growth, especially in light of last month's data, which was the lowest level since March 2023. Even so, the three-month average fell to 119,000, one of the lowest levels since 2020.

4. Fed's Barkin: A 50 basis point rate cut in September is reasonable as interest rates are inconsistent with falling inflation and unemployment close to sustainable levels; the FOMC cannot declare an end to anti-inflation and does not expect core PCE to fall much further before next year; if the economy develops as expected, two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year are a "reasonable path"; unemployment and inflation are expected to remain roughly stable for the rest of the year; the current rate cut is an appropriate readjustment of policy, but full normalization requires inflation to reach 2%.

Overview of recent important futures data and events

1. At 16:00 on October 4, the global FAO food price index for September was released. Previously, the global FAO food price index averaged 120.7 points in August, a slight decrease from the revised index in July. Compared with historical levels, the food price index in August fell by 1.1% compared with the same period last year. Pay attention to how the data will change in September.

2. At 20:30 on October 4, the US September seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate were released. Previously, the US August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000, which was lower than market expectations, but the largest increase since June this year. Pay attention to the changes in the September data, which may affect the Fed's monetary policy decisions.

3. October 4th, to be determined, Malaysia's MPOA palm oil production forecast for September 1-30. Previously, according to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production forecast for September 1-20 was reduced by 0.97%. Due to the current weather conditions, the market is concerned about the stagnation or even decline of Malaysia's palm oil production.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data