Bull market or bear market, which one will come first?

This question actually troubles many people. We all want to know whether the bull market will come first or the bear market will come first. But in fact, the market is always full of uncertainty, and no one can predict it 100% accurately. However, we can make reasonable judgments through some phenomena and data.

1. The impact of the global economic situation

The current global economy is unstable, and factors such as inflation, interest rate adjustments, and financial market turmoil are affecting market sentiment. In particular, the market pressure brought by the interest rate hike cycle has kept many investors on the sidelines. If the global economy continues to be weak, the bear market may come first, and everyone is reluctant to invest more money in a high-risk environment.

2. Market capital flow

Observing the capital flow of the market is an important indicator for judging bull and bear markets. The inflow of funds into the crypto market indicates that market confidence is recovering and the possibility of a bull market is increasing; conversely, if a large amount of funds flow out, the crypto market will face selling pressure and the probability of a bear market will increase. Although there are signs of capital inflows at present, the overall market is still cautious, so in the short term, it may first usher in a period of volatility rather than a direct bull market.

3. Crypto market cycle

The crypto market itself has its own cycle. From historical data, the alternation of bull and bear markets is a natural law. After a sharp decline, the market usually has a repair period, and only after this repair period can a bull market appear. In other words, the bear market may come first in the short term to accumulate energy for the next round of bull market.

4. Policy and regulatory factors

The regulatory attitude of various countries towards cryptocurrencies is also an important factor. If the policy is supportive, market confidence will be restored and the bull market may come earlier; but if the policy is suppressed, the risk of a bear market will increase. At present, the tightening of supervision in some countries may put pressure on the market in the short term.

Which will come first, the bull or the bear? I think the risk of a bear market is greater in the short term, but in the long run, the bull market will come sooner or later. The key is to be prepared, seize opportunities, and don't blindly follow the trend. If you want to find a way to survive in the alternation of bull and bear markets, being flexible is the kingly way.

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