$BTC

Golden October, the turning point has arrived

Pay attention to the risks in the Middle East, and operate after the holiday is stable

Crypto Insider 10/2

I. Economic data analysis:

(1) On November 7, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut rose to 63.9%, and the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut was 36.1%

(2) Geopolitics: Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel, pay attention to the subsequent development of the situation

(3) Today, the probability of Trump's victory is 49%, and the probability of Harris's victory is 50%

(4) ETF dynamics: negative inflow of 242 million U on the first day, pay attention to risks

(5) Friday's non-agricultural

II. On-chain data and market sentiment:

(1) Market sentiment 42 (down 8 from yesterday)

(2) Mining data analysis: 704.59 eh/s, handling fee 3.73 gas: 2 S19 shutdown coin price: 57137-62331U

(3) October 4th option pain point 63000 nominal amount 952 million

(4) Mysterious funds: FTX expects to distribute $16 billion to creditors in Q4. The hearing on October 7 may determine whether the plan can be implemented as scheduled

Recent potential negatives

1. Middle East situation

2. Japan's economic policy (change of prime minister, pay attention to the backstab of interest rate hike at the end of the year)

Ishiba Shigeru plans to hold a general election on October 27. According to Kyodo News, Kato Katsunobu will become the next finance minister, replacing Suzuki Shunichi.

3. Uncertainty before the election

4. A-share sucking blood

Recent potential positives

1. FTX 16 billion U funds enter the market

The above content is for information sharing only,

does not constitute any investment advice!

Investment is risky, enter the market with caution!