Bitcoin has been consolidating for over 6 months now, making lower highs and lows. Watching the Coinbase Premium Index to gauge buying and selling pressure from the US market.

Strong buying pressure pushes the index above 0, and selling - below 0. Over the past 6 months, every lower high has been accompanied by an index below 0, indicating a predominance of sellers.

For Bitcoin to break out of this consolidation, the index must turn positive and stay that way. This means that a strong and constant buying pressure from the US is needed.

The global macroeconomic backdrop is favorable: central banks are on accommodative monetary policy, the Fed has cut rates by 50 bps, DXY is down, and the market is entering Q4, a historically favorable period.

Given the leverage, short-term liquidations in both directions are possible. We expect an upward breakout in the coming weeks or months if the index turns positive.

Remember that the US election adds uncertainty, so the next big Bitcoin rally may come after the election when the market stabilizes.