Original author: @eherrerosj
Original compilation: Luccy, BlockBeats
Electric Capital released updated October developer data analysis on social media platforms on October 19, using data to indicate that the number of new developers exploring cryptocurrencies will decrease in 2023. BlockBeats has organized and compiled the updated content as follows:
We reviewed over 164 million crypto submissions and came to the following conclusions:
As of October 1, 2023, the number of monthly active open source developers was 19,300. The number of developers decreased by 27% compared to the same period last year.
Developers who have recently left the crypto space are mainly newcomers who have worked in the crypto space for less than 12 months and commit about 25% of all code. This finding is consistent with our research in July 2023, and this trend is still continuing.
The number of developers has increased by 66% since the bear market 3 years ago
The number of developers increased by 66% compared to the last bear market, but the number of developers decreased in 2023, down 27% compared to October 2022 and 4% compared to October 2021.
Despite this long-term growth, what has happened since October 2022?
Developers who have been working in crypto for more than 1 year continue to contribute, while many newcomers leave
We can categorize monthly active developers by how long they’ve been working in crypto by comparing their first and last commits:
Newbies: Developers who have been working in crypto for less than 1 year
Emerging: Developers who have been working in crypto for 1-2 years
Mature: developers who have worked in the crypto space for more than 2 years
The decrease in monthly active developers over the past year is mainly due to the novice stage. This shows that despite the long-term growth of the crypto field, many newly joined developers may have chosen to leave since October 2022 for various reasons (such as market fluctuations, fierce competition, etc.). However, those developers who have been working in the crypto field for more than 1 year are still contributing continuously, which may mean that they have a high confidence in the crypto field or have found stable development opportunities in this industry.
We can see that the number of new developers decreased by 58%, the number of emerging developers increased modestly by 11%, and the number of mature developers increased slightly by 5%.
Why are the number of novice developers decreasing?
Fewer new developers exploring cryptocurrencies in 2023
First, the decline in novice developers is because fewer and fewer new developers are entering the crypto space. As of October 2023, there were 1,721 new developers joining the crypto space. This is a 40% decrease in the number of new developers entering the crypto space since June 2023, a 64% decrease since October 2022, and a 67% decrease since the market peak in November 2021.
Newcomers often dominate at market peaks
Second, during bull markets, newbies dominate, but during bear markets, they decline. This phenomenon has also occurred in the past:
In the six months following the January 2018 peak, the share of newbies reached 70%;
Seven months after the November 2021 peak, the share of newbies reached 60%.
However, 24 months after the January 2018 peak, the share of emerging and mature developers rose to 60%;
23 months after the peak in November 2021, the proportion of emerging and mature developers reached 70%.
While monthly active developers have declined overall, how important are the developers who leave?
Developers who stay in crypto commit more code, have more active days, and work longer in crypto than those who leave
In the crypto space, the vast majority of code submissions come from developers who stay in the space:
About 25% of commits are contributed by developers who left after July 2023
75% of commits are from developers who are still active in the field after July 2023
In the crypto space, developers who stay tend to have longer working hours and more code submission days:
For developers still working in the field, the median number of active weeks was 12 weeks, compared to just 1 week for developers who left the field.
In crypto, the median experience of developers who stayed was 21 months, while the median experience of developers who left was only 5 months.
Related reading: October 2023 Developer Update
The number of active developers in some ecosystems has increased since October 2022
Here are the fastest growing ecosystems with more than 70 developers and positive year-over-year growth:
Aztec Protocol: 168% YoY growth, 76 monthly active developers
Celestia: 145% year-over-year growth, 81 monthly active developers
Ripple: 18% year-over-year growth, 172 monthly active developers
TON: 8% annual growth, 126 monthly active developers
ZKSync: 6% YoY growth, 229 monthly active developers
Starknet: 4% year-over-year growth, 517 monthly active developers
We updated the Open Source Cryptography Taxonomy, with more community contributions than ever before.
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