The crypto market has performed strongly in the past week, and the Federal Reserve's policy expectations of a rate cut have ushered in a global easing cycle.
原文标题：《Raoul Pal Reveals the BEST Crypto Strategy After Fed Rate Cut》
Compiled by: zhouzhou, BlockBeats
Editor's note: The crypto market has performed strongly in the past week, and the Fed's policy is expected to cut interest rates to start a global easing cycle. Compared with the same period last year, Bitcoin has risen by 13%-14%, and altcoins have risen by more than 50%. Solana's market enthusiasm has weakened, and more attention has turned to new L1 projects such as Sui, and investor sentiment has gradually returned to rationality. In the future, the market may fluctuate around elections, technical aspects and macro backgrounds. ETH is considered to have undervalued opportunities and the potential for recovery in the NFT market. Raoul Pal is optimistic about the future of X Copy's NFT and digital art. The discussion also touched on the combination of NFT and meme coins and their potential to enhance the community, especially the multi-cycle value of meme projects such as Pepe and Doge, while emphasizing the importance of nostalgia and Internet culture in the NFT market.
Guest introduction:
Mando: Co-founder of Canary Labs, creator of Mando Minutes.
OSF: Co-founder of rektguy and Canary Labs.
Raoul Pal : CEO and co-founder of Real Vision.
TL;DR：
Strong rebound in crypto market: The cryptocurrency market has performed well in the past week, with macroeconomic dynamics, especially changes in Fed policy, triggering a market rebound, especially as technical sell-offs are a thing of the past.
Impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut: As the global easing cycle begins and the market enters a new era of monetary policy, Bitcoin and many altcoins have risen significantly.
Solana market enthusiasm is declining: Regarding the current competitive situation between Solana and Ethereum, it is pointed out that the Solana craze has faded and user attention has shifted to other L1s such as Sui.
The rise and fall of the meme market: The decline of meme coin hype is similar to the decline of the NFT market. At the same time, despite the current low sentiment of ETH, there is still great potential for the ETH and NFT markets in the future under the macroeconomic easing cycle.
New L1 projects are attracting attention: Sui has performed strongly recently, mainly due to the USDC integration with Circle and the increase in market attention. Avalanche's gaming ecosystem also shows potential, especially Web3 gaming projects such as "Off the Grid", which may drive its strong return.
Quick Questions and Answers: It is mentioned that the market is currently mainly driven by the return of off-site funds rather than the entry of large-scale new investors. Despite concerns about the yield curve and interest rate cuts, the overall market sentiment has not seen a large influx of funds, and it is expected that more institutions will participate only when Bitcoin reaches a new high.
Crypto market rebounds strongly
Mando: The cryptocurrency market has performed very well in the past week. How do you feel about the market?
Raoul Pal: We have been saying for a long time that September is a good time to accumulate. This week was very important on the macroeconomic front, especially the Fed's developments which seemed to trigger a reaction in the market. There were a lot of big events this week, but now everyone seems to have a clearer picture. People had hoped for a rebound after getting more clear guidance, and it is clear that a lot of technical selling has passed.
FTX will be back in Q4, and it looks like this is a carefully orchestrated Fed policy, and we may be in for a two-year rate cut cycle. Although we may not immediately move to quantitative easing except in China, the global easing cycle seems to have started again.
OSF: A few weeks ago, in the last two shows I was on, we mentioned that if you were going to enter the market, this was the perfect time. Bitcoin was barely hanging on between $54,000 and $55,000 at the time, and we had a very volatile and illiquid summer. We talked about this before the rate cut this week, and given the election and the base rate being between 25 and 50 basis points, the Fed actually had a lot of room to cut rates.
So I think we mentioned a few weeks ago that whether you were bullish or not, if you wanted to take some risk in the market, that was the best time. Because Bitcoin is up about 13% to 14% since then, and many altcoins and popular coins are up more than 50%. Now we have to figure out whether this rise can be sustained, compared to previous false breakouts, we are at the beginning of an easing cycle, and the Fed has not done this for more than three years, maybe even longer. We have to understand that this is a paradigm shift, and we are about to enter a completely new era of monetary policy and global liquidity.
The impact of the Fed’s rate cut
Raoul Pal: This is a beautiful chart from the GMI Global Weekly, showing private and public sector liquidity in major global economies. It is a perfect indicator, 10 weeks ahead. M2 behaves similarly. We also see that Bitcoin has a consistently strong seasonal performance.
Let me share another chart. Bitcoin is repeating last year's trend almost perfectly. We have the macro backdrop, the Fed will continue to cut rates, other central banks will also participate, seasonality and global liquidity cycle are in place.
I don't know what's left, it seems like now is the best time, even the chart pattern shows that there are usually three touches within the range of tops and bottoms, which usually works, so all the factors are in place.
Mando: I've said publicly on this show that I've been doing DCA for the last few weeks. But I think we may experience some volatility during the election, and if Trump wins, I think we may see a fierce rally at the end of the year because other factors are in play and the fundamentals are strong and gold is hitting new all-time highs every day.
This suggests that the divergence between gold and Bitcoin provides an excellent opportunity to buy Bitcoin. The negative correlation between them in the past period was mainly due to technical selling, but now it seems that there will be technical buying in the fourth quarter. This week we have seen Michael Saylor increase the supply of convertible bonds by 700 million to 1 billion, which means that he still has about 1.5 billion dollars of Bitcoin to buy, and he will continue to buy.
This week, BlackRock said they will tell investors that Bitcoin is the best hedge against the current US debt crisis, which further indicates that institutional demand is increasing. In addition, countries such as Qatar and Bhutan also disclosed large Bitcoin holdings this week, which shows that more and more sovereigns are entering the market. At the same time, FTX also has about $16 billion of funds returning to the market. I think the technical and fundamental aspects are connected. However, we may still have some volatility before the election, but this window is really short and you will buy on the way up instead of waiting for the low.
Raoul Pal: These fluctuations may occur near the top of the trend, fluctuating at the level of $70,000 for Bitcoin, and may hover between $70,000 and $75,000. However, no matter what the election results are, the market will rise afterwards, which has been verified in the past. The market performed well when Trump was in power because he was very supportive of stimulus policies, friendly to cryptocurrencies, and regulation might be more favorable. If this really happens, it may inject more momentum into the crypto market. In the last bull cycle in 2016 and 2017, the Fed did not massively ease liquidity, but just started to raise interest rates.
Mando: I think the political factors have a relatively small impact, and what is more important is the clarity of the market. I think the market will rebound even if Kamala is elected. The market always rises when uncertainty decreases, and Trump may introduce more radical crypto policies, and there may also be a push for crypto regulation. People are starting to talk about things like the Solana ETF, and I believe these will all appear in the market, although they may be more favorable to altcoins, but the overall market will rise in all cases because the fundamentals remain strong.
Raoul Pal: Kyle Samani mentioned in his speech whether Solana is the killer of Ethereum, whether ETH is really dead, and the transaction status of L1 and L2. What did you notice was the focus of the discussion in Singapore?
Solana Market Enthusiasm Fades
OSF: I feel like the debate between Ethereum and Solana has reached its conclusion, especially with Solana’s price swings being so significant over the past 12 months, so the topic is no longer hot. The atmosphere of the discussion focused more on macro-level issues. Everyone was thinking about whether this rebound was real or another false breakthrough. This is the main focus of attention. To my surprise, there's widespread acceptance that Solana probably won't do much in the next 12 months, and many are starting to look at other L1s like Sui and others.
Raoul Pal: Why has the enthusiasm for Solana waned? There doesn’t seem to be any sign of change in the ecosystem.
OSF: From my personal observation, the sentiment may stem from the previous hype of meme coins, which people believe drove Solana's rebound in the first half of this year. As the nature of the game changed from PvE to PvP, many people may have lost money in the process, resulting in a decline in attention. Many people began to focus on Monad and Bear Chain, which will be launched next year, which seems to be one of the reasons why I became more cautious about Solana.
Raoul Pal: Monad and Bear Chain will be launched at the end of a possible bull run, why would retail investors buy them? Won't only early investors sell? I don't understand why retail investors would choose to buy these projects when the market is likely to end in the fall.
OSF: That’s exactly the nature of retail investors, and they did this in previous cycles as well, just as Salana did in 2020.
Mando: I think L1 trading has become more competitive, about 12 months ago, Salana was the obvious choice, but a lot has changed in recent months. Salana's use as an actual trading asset has shifted to buying meme coins, which has changed the trajectory of the coin. In the last 2-3 months, Salana has not performed badly, but it has moved more towards payment infrastructure and DeFi, with user numbers remaining high but transaction volume declining. I think this will slow growth.
The rise and fall of the meme market
Raoul Pal: Do you think this cycle is over? Or is this just the first rebound? You can compare it to the early cycles of NFTs. What do you think? I think we still have another wave of market, but it may be more concentrated.
OSF: I think this is the end of the meme coin hype, and it feels like the NFT market in 2022. You are no longer an early participant in this huge casino, the excess profits are gone, market participants have become more sophisticated, and there are now many tools and robots to improve the trading advantage. The easiest way is to create a meme coin, internally supply it, and then abandon it after the hype, and then move on to the next project.
In the early days of NFTs, only a few projects performed well, but by mid-2022, new projects appeared every day, many of which were made by the same team. The novelty has worn off, and it will be difficult to recover. Unless there is a massive influx of users, which I personally think is unlikely, the potential attention far exceeds the actual participants, and the attention is dispersed.
Regarding Salana, in addition to price, market capitalization and circulating market capitalization are also important. Salana's circulating market capitalization is close to its historical high, currently at $69 billion, while the highest value in 2021 was $75 billion, and the highest this year was around $80 billion. Remember that many Salana tokens are still locked, and a large number of tokens will be unlocked early next year, so don't just focus on the price.
Mando: I’m not a short-term trader, but I think new wallets may not rush back in due to the strength of the meme coin cycle. While tokenized internet culture will be the main use case for blockchain, it may take some time to calm down. But I think some meme coins may continue to do well, but the craze for the entire meme culture may weaken significantly. NFTs and culture will merge into new forms, which may be apparent in the next cycle.
I bought a lot of ETH this week and felt that the current narrative was suppressed. A lot of people are discussing L1 and L2 issues, and seeing some analysts think we are close to the bottom and there is a possibility of a rebound. Although ETH has not seen a real rebound yet, I think it is undervalued.
Raoul Pal: I want to share with you a hopium chart. Even though these charts sometimes break down when they are needed most, technically they seem to be on track.
OSF: It feels like Ethereum sentiment is at an all-time low right now, and if there is a general risk-on rally, ETH should perform along with BTC. But ESPDC has dropped dramatically from 0.059 before the ETF announcement to 0.04 now, mostly because the Ethereum Foundation is selling and participation is not as active as other projects like Salana. The Ethereum ecosystem is very fragmented, with many different L2 and meme coins. It feels like if someone wants to chase yield, they might choose to buy other L2s instead of focusing on ETH.
Mando: I’m not always bullish, but from a relative value perspective, if Bitcoin continues to go lower and Salana could rally towards a fully diluted market cap of $100 billion, I think ETH has a lot of potential as well.
Raoul Pal: I’ve been buying X Copy’s NFTs lately, mostly digital art, and X Copy’s work has been doing really well lately, with some small editions selling for 300 ETH, which could indicate that the NFT market could be recovering. I have a strong theory that as the crypto market’s market cap rises, from $2 trillion to what I think is $100 trillion, the art market will also boom, creating unprecedented wealth.
I started buying X Copy in January and have been buying it this year. This has inspired a lot of people, and I often share my view that those culturally relevant artworks will be sought after first. But I think the market will expand again, and art will not disappear. Although the price of X Copy has fallen, I think we will see a rotation, just like Bitcoin has dominated the market, as the market expands, other layer 1 and layer 2 assets will follow.
Mando: I agree that in 2021 we are seeing a lot of emerging artists entering the market and having successful releases. My view is that the tokenization of internet culture will continue for a long time to come. People will continue to buy relics of internet and blockchain culture. What we are seeing now is that more and more big collectors are starting to pay attention to these digital artworks, which may lead to a new wave of sales.
Nostalgia is valuable, people will always look back on the past, and that emotion is valuable. For example, the high prices of tickets to Oasis concerts right now are a way of converting nostalgia into money. People are willing to pay a lot for these cultural moments because they mean so much to so many people. The cultural moments of 2018, 2019, and 2021 will always remain in the memories of those who participated, and the value of these works will only increase as time goes by.
OSF: Do you think the same NFT collection activity will happen on Solana or other chains? Will it be long-lasting?
Raoul Pal: I have NFTs on Solana, but I can’t see them in the same place, not in my OpenSea or wallet, which is annoying for me. So I think these activities are more likely to happen on Ethereum.
OSF: Do you think NFTs and meme coins will merge at some point?
Raoul Pal: In a way, the scarcity of NFTs greatly enhances the status of the meme coin community. When I was discussing with the Smoking Chicken Fish team, I mentioned that they could issue the identities of priests and bishops as NFTs, and people could buy these identities with NFTs.
OSF: I think the PFP community is one of the strongest in 2021. The biggest barrier for them is joining the club. It’s hard to get people to be part of this community if the cheapest NFT is a few thousand dollars. If you have an NFT collection with a meme-based community, and a related meme token, that’s A plus B. I think that’s a very powerful combination because you can show off by buying a golden or rare NFT, but you only spend $1 to get into this community.
Raoul Pal: I know a lot of people are down on the Bored Ape Yacht Club, but they actually have a club in Miami and we use it when we go there. I can see the idea spreading and they are also working on using ApeCoin and ApeChain, they have big ideas and it all comes together.
Mando: What are the first three things you would recommend listeners buy? Besides X Copy, because you need $700,000 to buy that. Which ones might be more valuable?
OSF: I still think Pepe is very undervalued in the NFT market, and while it’s not technically an NFT on Ethereum, the original ones are rare. You can buy the original NFT from 2016, and I think it represents the biggest meme character in the history of the internet. And it’s hard to buy, which I think is actually a feature. So, owning a rare Pepe is almost the most original thing in the NFT space for me, both in terms of historical significance and cultural significance. And I definitely don’t discount Doge, if someone asks me what you would buy to enter this space, obviously X Copy has a place in the art narrative. I feel like Pepe and Doge are probably the biggest multi-cycle memes you can have, they will go through crazy fluctuations, but they will never go back to zero, and they will always retain some value of internet culture.
Mando: What about NFTs more broadly?
OSF: I feel like a lot of NFTs have been depressed in price, but I can see projects like Bored Apes rebounding, maybe Mutant Apes is still relatively cheap right now, and X Copy is in the most pain.
Raoul Pal: We should also agree on the value of Punks. Everyone says Red Guy, but I don't disagree. I think Red Guy, MFS and Crypto Butts are works of that era and will always be remembered by culture, so they will always have value. The key is that whether it is MFS or MF tokens, I don't know whether it is really valuable or just a gimmick to attract attention.
I think as long as there is an opportunity to revitalize the NFT community at the right time, it will be revitalized. Most people don't end up selling these things, they just identify with them. If I share my screen, you can see that these things will always be remembered. I think now is to pick those projects that are still remembered from the last cycle but are relatively cheap, and they are likely to continue to be noticed in the next cycle.
I do think these things will persist, but now you really have to choose carefully, internet culture and crypto culture are obviously with us, and you can guess which ones will become folklore, but the premise is that you have to have such characteristics.
New L1 project attracts attention
Mando: Next, let's focus on the top performers of the week. Do you know the performance of L1 chains? For example, Sui, which was trading at less than $0.5 in mid-August, has now risen to $1.5, a three-fold increase in less than a month and a half. I think it is close to its all-time high, and the market capitalization is also increasing, although there is some dilution because it has a lot of unlocking.
This week they announced that they are integrating Circle’s stablecoin USDC on-chain. Last week, Grayscale also started to take notice of Sui and started to raise funds from institutional investors. It all feels like it is gathering momentum. Raoul Pal, do you think this project will continue to push higher? Will this be a game changer for Sui?
Raoul Pal: I've been thinking that maybe this is one of the projects that was chosen. The reason is that the team is very good, they have built a scalable blockchain suitable for more than 3 billion people. Their technical strength is very strong, and although the narrative was missing at the beginning, it is now gradually coming alive. In fact, they have reduced the latency of the chain to 600 milliseconds, which is very fast. They are building a data storage layer called Wall Rust, which will be a separate token, basically similar to AWS, built on the whole Move virtual machine. In addition, they have Pilot Fish coming out, which is similar to Fire Dancer and can provide almost unlimited TPS. And their business development team is very strong.
Obviously, they just signed a partnership with Circle, and there are definitely many other partnership opportunities, both in the gaming and real-world asset space. So they are attracting market attention now. It is worth noting that this project has a low circulation, and once it attracts attention with low circulation, the performance usually exceeds expectations because there are few quantities around.
For other projects like Ethereum, the situation is not going to change much. I know people are biased against low-volume projects, you love them in a bull market and hate them in a bear market because they are very volatile. But they are successfully attracting market attention, and people are looking for the next big opportunity. Now everyone is asking if Solana trading is over, what's next? So everything seems to fit in this project, and I don't think there is any other project that can dominate the market at the moment.
I looked at the chart of Sui vs the top 20 tokens and I don't see any competition, Monad and Bear chain are the only ones that might perform in the near term. That doesn't mean that Celestia and others won't rise, it's just hard to see anything that could outperform Sui.
Mando: It is indeed the best performer in the top 100 this week, and I remember you posted a comparison chart of it and Solana a few weeks ago, and it has performed really well during that period. Its market cap is $4 billion, FDV is $15 billion, and the unlocking volume is relatively significant. The massive unlocking has already happened, and the worst is over.
I think Sui's story leans more towards B2B, and their recent B2C integrations have been less obvious, especially with some consumer crypto applications. However, the integration of USTC may allow their DeFi project to grow. The current total locked value (TVL) is also huge at $80 billion, which puts it in a good position. This is a project that has tripled in a month and a half, so be cautious. But at the same time, it has indeed attracted attention and is leading among other L1s. Phantom is also a bright spot because they have some new dynamics, but Sui seems to be more popular in the market. We saw a lot of people sell Ethereum and invest in Sui instead, feeling that they missed the opportunity of Solana.
Raoul Pal: Another interesting project is Avalanche. I just interviewed John Wu from Avalanche, who is the head of games at Term Delphi, and he mentioned their investment in the game "Off the Grid", which is probably one of the best Web3 games I've ever seen. If this game is successful, it will be a big deal.
Gaming has been going through a weird cycle before, it was very strong about a year ago, and there were a lot of different coins. Today there was a $1 billion game coin launched on the Ton network. Also, a Telegram mobile game launched by ByteDance also reached a $1 billion market cap today. There is a "Hamster Combat" launch next week that is expected to potentially reach billions of dollars.
Mando: If that’s the case, the gaming ecosystem for AVAX is really strong and we may see a strong comeback from it. Did you hear any other narratives about altcoins at the OSF conference in Singapore? Someone mentioned Deepin as the main one, but I feel like it has some integration with Grab and feels like it has the strongest momentum right now.
OSF: I agree. But I didn’t take anything away from this conference. Usually when I attend these conferences, there are always some new ideas or projects worth paying attention to, but this one felt like a conference full of disappointment. Compared to previous events like NFT NYC or Consensus, everyone seemed to be focusing on whether there would be a rebound, and there were no particularly exciting projects.
Mando: Are there any interesting projects you’ve discovered recently, or projects that are early trends?
Raoul Pal: I joined the board of Club Divan and they are launching their token today or tomorrow, and for me it’s not about the token price, it’s about whether you can actually use this stuff for loyalty, logistics, deep integrations and all the things that are being discussed.
In the market, I am very concentrated, mainly in Solana and Sui, and even my meme currency is only Doge and Smoking Chickenfish. So I am very concentrated. My NFT is my long-term savings investment, I want to hold good things for ten years. If you think there is a good investment story, don't act rashly, because you may make a mess of yourself without knowing it.
Mando: Also, one of the headlines I saw this week was about Bhutan claiming to hold $780 million worth of Bitcoin. I know you engage with different sovereign wealth funds as well as governments, advising on blockchain and blockchain strategy. Do you think we’ll see more stories like this? About a week ago, Qatar introduced crypto regulation, but that was relatively quiet? Based on your conversations, do you think we’ll see more adoption at the sovereign level?
Raoul Pal: I think if they do it, they'll probably keep it low profile. The last thing you want to do is signal to the U.S. reserve currency that you don't want to hold their currency and are even a little bit hostile to them. So I think Bhutan is an exception, they're recycling electricity. We know Iran is mining, I believe Saudi Arabia is mining, and I've talked to Abu Dhabi about mining using gas venting. I think there will be experiments, but I don't think there will be large-scale hoarding of Bitcoin by sovereigns.
Don't forget, the US can analyze the blockchain on a case-by-case basis, so you can't get around them. The only real way is to invest in Bitcoin miners like Temasek does, to get virgin Bitcoins, so that's the only way to be untraceable.
Mando: Do you think that with the price of oil and many commodities changing, especially in the energy sector, that these Gulf countries will have a strong interest in Bitcoin as a means of diversification? I see a lot of articles about Saudi Arabia being under budget pressure.
Raoul Pal: Their payments are all in dollars, and they have to be very careful with these things. They're going to do some things behind the scenes, but I don't think we're going to suddenly see Saudi Arabia buying $10 billion a day in Bitcoin for the next 50 years. I just don't think that's going to happen. I think that's a little overly optimistic, but there will certainly be more participation.
I spoke to the head of the Australian sovereign fund and he made it clear: "I will never put crypto on my balance sheet." He said he would do other things like venture capital. I asked him why and he said, "I can't do it at the G7 meeting or the World Bank meeting, I can't do it." This shows that their attitude towards crypto is clear.
Mando: Do you think the Gulf countries won’t even be allowed to buy crypto? They have to buy USD and may not be allowed to diversify?
Raoul Pal: To some extent, they will do some covert operations in sovereign wealth funds, but this is marginal. Don't forget that Saudi Arabia is not yet involved in this field on a large scale, they are still hesitant and the regulation is not clear. Maybe Qatar and some other countries will make some moves, but I don't think there will be public announcements, like Bhutan has been doing low-key operations for several years.
Mando: If oil prices continue to fall, I think there may be an urge to diversify. Especially if the large shale fields in the United States resume production, or grow, there will be more questions about how the Gulf countries view cryptocurrencies.
Quick Questions and Answers
OSF: How do you categorize database-based alternative coins?
Raoul Pal: He has about a thousand dollars worth. I understand the point of utility tokens, but not sure how much value they can accrue in a big use case like this. If they can build a larger ecosystem and compete with standards and other data services, then this will be a valuable network. But it's not certain yet, so let's keep an eye on their progress.
OSF: What specific projects are you focusing on regarding deep incentivization and its role in the cycle?
Mando: I learned about this project from the comments on Token 2049. Singapore has started to integrate some deep incentive applications, and the most successful application in the United States is the mobile provider Helium. I feel that it is growing rapidly, and they already have hundreds of thousands of users using their mobile plans, and they are looking to continue to expand. If this project is successful, you will see similar projects in many different countries. Basically, you can run a small network in your home, upgrade the network's 5G capabilities, and get paid in a local token. At the moment, their network coverage in the United States is very good, and it seems that they are also planning to expand to multiple countries.
I think this is the main winner in the deep incentive cycle, there are other projects that merge AI and data storage, but this is one of the standards I think. Also, I think on Solana, they are experimenting with a version of Uber, which has been proposed before but was tried in India and didn't work, and now there is a new project starting up that may be interesting.
OSF: Is the return to normalcy in the inverted yield curve a cause for concern? Many people say it is an indicator of a recession.
Raoul Pal: This is macroeconomic pessimists looking for another reason to crash the market and inflation will return. This signal has been given in the past and it didn't work. We now have a yield curve that is distorted by the Fed's bond issuance and other factors, and I think we should ignore it.
Mando: I agree. People often say that historically rate cuts are a sign of a recession. But you can’t extrapolate every scenario based on rate cuts alone. The last time rates were cut, did we have this crazy AI bubble and AI craze? The last time that happened, rates were at their highest in 40 years, and the stock market was also making all-time highs, which has never happened before. So we’re in a new paradigm right now, because of AI and tech stocks, and you can’t just compare the current market situation to past rate cuts.
OSF: It feels like retail investors are buying back and positioning themselves as much as possible, are there any signs of big money flowing into the crypto market?
Raoul Pal: I don’t see any signs of that, everyone I talk to says they are not raising funds right now, everyone is waiting and watching. I think the RAA network, family offices and some institutions are more likely to enter the market when Bitcoin exceeds $80,000. The current flow of funds is just some of the funds on the sidelines returning, I don’t see more. What do you see?
Mando: I also feel like there aren’t a ton of new investors entering the crypto market this time around, throughout the cycle. There was a little bit of incremental growth at the beginning of the year, but that tapered off. However, I think the ETFs are also sucking away some on-chain holders. Right now, Bitcoin holders and deposit addresses are at a five-year low, and I feel like a lot of money is moving into ETFs. For people to FOMO in and hear an appealing story, Bitcoin needs to reach new all-time highs again, so right now it looks like people are just buying back what they sold before, rather than new wallets joining, but that doesn’t mean they won’t come in later.
Raoul Pal: For example, there was a large number of people inquiring in March and April, and now the market is sideways, they may hesitate a little. I guess when we reach new all-time highs again, their conversion rate will be very high, which is the natural tendency.
Mando: FTX is also a big project. $1.6 billion is not a small amount, but most of it was pre-sold to Galaxy and Pantera, which has suppressed the market to some extent because these unlockings have expired. Some people say that the actual funds entering the market may be only 2 billion to 3 billion.
OSF: There are two potential impacts. The FTX asset sales have been running in the market for some time, and the other is the flow of funds returned to depositors, some of which have also been sold. I heard that someone sold claims at 10 cents, and of course, the current recovery price is already above par. But I think the secondary market impact of the return to depositors should be positive, provided that not everyone sells their claims.
