Short-term holders' behavior is one of the most crucial parameters closely monitored by many participants in the Bitcoin market. In this metric, we observe the percentage of realized cap in the hands of short-term Bitcoin holders, referred to as the Realized Cap Hold Wave.
This metric effectively illustrates the distribution and allocation of wealth and assets in percentage, dollar value, and the amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders. Analyzing this data is one of the best methods for estimating the long-term economic outlook of Bitcoin in a cyclical perspective.
Typically, Bitcoin price bottoms are formed with a significant reduction in the assets held by short-term holders. These holders often sell a significant portion of their assets in response to bearish market pressures, leading to a substantial increase in realized cap among long-term loyal holders. This concept has the opposite effect on price Tops.
In this article, we aim to provide a percentage change in wealth for short-term holders in each cycle from 2015 to the present.
In the 2015 bull cycle, there was an approximately 11% increase in the realized capital held by short-term Bitcoin holders during the first nine months of the cycle. This percentage decreased to 8.6% in the 2018-2019 cycle and currently stands at only 6% in 2023.
This event indicates that in the price cycle of 2023, not only a small portion of the purchased Bitcoins by short-term holders have been held for the long term, but also the level of confidence and hope among new investors to buy and hold Bitcoin has significantly decreased.
Written by Crazzyblockk
