Powell made an unexpected U-turn, and the market expects 6 rate cuts next year. At the interest rate meeting in the early hours of Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5%. The Federal Reserve made an unexpected U-turn, and Powell said: Members are discussing the timing of rate cuts, and rate cuts are in sight. The Federal Reserve's interest rate dot plot shows that there will be 3 rate cuts next year (2 times were expected in September). Interest rate futures pricing The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 150 basis points in 2024, a total of 6 times. The ECB is betting on a rate cut of 154 basis points. The taps of the two mainstream central banks are open at the same time, injecting water into the market next year. The Dow Jones Index of US stocks broke through 37,000 points, setting a record high.

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In its first cryptocurrency accounting rule, the Financial Accounting Standards Board said that cryptocurrency companies and any other companies holding BTC or ETH must record their cryptocurrency holdings at fair value to capture highs and lows, and changes in fair value will be included in net income. The previous accounting method only allowed companies to record lows, and companies betting on BTC have long been dissatisfied with this one-sided accounting treatment. David Marcus, former president of PayPal, said that the new US cryptocurrency fair value accounting rules "are a big deal" and that it removes a major obstacle for companies to hold BTC on their balance sheets. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor said that the upgrade of accounting standards will promote the adoption of BTC as a reserve asset by global companies. Andalusia Labs, which focuses on digital asset infrastructure, has completed a $48 million financing with a valuation of $1 billion. Canaan Creative completed the first round of $125 million preferred stock financing, raising $25 million. CryptoSlam data shows that BTC network NFT sales ranked first in the past 24 hours, the past 7 days and the past 30 days. Bitwise released 10 predictions for the crypto market in 2024: BTC price will exceed $80,000, setting a record high; spot BTC ETF will be approved; AI assistants will begin using cryptocurrencies for online payments; as Wall Street prepares to tokenize real-world assets, JPMorgan will tokenize a fund and launch it on the chain.

Wang Feng, founder of Linekong Interactive, said the company is preparing to apply to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for approval to purchase BTC within a price cap of $60,000. He personally added another $2 million of BTC yesterday, and predicted that it might exceed $50,000 by the end of the year or before the Spring Festival next year, and is expected to reach $100,000 in 2024. Mathew McDermott, an executive at Goldman Sachs, said that he expects US securities regulators to approve BTC spot ETFs soon, and customers are increasingly interested in cryptocurrency derivatives trading. There is also a huge demand for issuing blockchain-based tokens that represent traditional assets such as bonds. Goldman Sachs' customer survey showed that 16% of respondents expect more than 10% of financial markets to be tokenized in the next three to five years. Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, said: I am a fan of cryptocurrency, and the upcoming halving is a catalyst for BTC. Historically, halving has always been a period of benefit for BTC. The Fed turned faster than the market expected. Before the meeting, people thought Powell might knock the market. On the contrary, Powell decisively turned to dovish. Powell said: The Fed is aware of the risk of not cutting interest rates fast enough, members are discussing when to cut interest rates, and interest rate cuts are on the horizon; the inflation decline process has been smooth so far, and interest rates will not be cut until the inflation rate reaches 2%; we are aware of the risk of maintaining high interest rates for a long time, and a recession will seriously affect the decision to cut interest rates. The Fed's interest rate dot plot shows that there will be three interest rate cuts in 2024 (one more than before), four more interest rate cuts in 2025, and three interest rate cuts in 2026. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said: As inflation falls, it is natural for the Fed to consider cutting interest rates.

Traders are pricing in six rate cuts in 2024, totaling 150 basis points. CME Fed Watch shows that the probability of a rate cut in February is 16.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points in March is 66.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 12.4%. Wall Street investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and Barclays have all advanced their expectations for the timing of the Fed's rate cut. Affected by the Fed's dovish stance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through 37,000 points, setting a record high. Morgan Creek founder Anthony Pompliano said that the Federal Reserve is pushing the stock market to a record high, and BTC and crypto assets will be next. JPMorgan Chase reported that by 2024, ETH may outperform BTC and other cryptocurrencies and regain market share in the crypto ecosystem. The SEC postponed the decision on Invesco Galaxy's ETH spot ETF to February 6 next year. Bitwise released a 2024 forecast that BTC will hit a new high of $80,000. The Fed has confirmed its shift. Powell will create a dovish atmosphere for next year to avoid an economic recession. Rate cuts are inevitable and the bull market is complete. In the short term, many people in the circle are bearish, while most people outside the circle are bullish. Perhaps this is the exchange of chips in the early stage of the big bull market. After washing out the floating chips, the bull market will be higher. In a bear market, the initiative is in the hands of the coin holders in the circle, who sell coins; in a bull market, the initiative is in the hands of the money holders outside the circle (such as the Fed/asset managers applying for spot ETFs), who buy coins. After the Fed's tightening monetary policy shifted, hot money continued to flow into the risky market. Therefore, in the bull market, those who did not sell may not feel comfortable, and those who sold may not feel comfortable either. The decline is not smooth, and the rise is boundless. The old man is optimistic and long-term, and I wish you good luck in the bull market. #BTC