$BTC

Golden September, the turning point has arrived

Crypto Insider 9/20

I. Economic data analysis:

(1) On November 7, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 59.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut was 40.9%

(2) Geopolitics: Blinken's tenth visit to the Middle East was fruitless, and the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza are still deadlocked

(3) Today, Trump's probability of winning the election is 47%, and Harris's probability of winning the election is 51%

(4) ETF dynamics: Positive. Yesterday's net inflow was 158.21 million U, and the overall ETF had a net inflow for 5 consecutive days

(5) Japan maintained the exchange rate unchanged at 0.25%, the US-Japan exchange rate was 143.55, and the yen depreciated, which is good for BTC

II. On-chain data and market sentiment:

(1) Market sentiment 54 (up 9 from yesterday)

(2) Mining data analysis: 692.91eh/s, handling fee 8.29 gas:5 S19 shutdown coin price: 57078-59008U

Recent potential negatives

1. Mentougou follow-up compensation

2. The first interest rate cut in September (a 50 basis point cut is negative, and a 25 basis point cut is neutral)

3. Little Japan's economic policy (pay attention to the appreciation of the exchange rate and the backstab of the interest rate hike at the end of the year)

4. Uncertainty before the election

Recent potential positives

1. After the adjustment period of ETH spot ETF, it enters the rising cycle

2. CPI data

3. Japan's interest rate remains unchanged, the yen depreciates, and it is good for risky assets

The above content is for information sharing only,

does not constitute any investment advice!

Investment is risky, enter the market with caution!