The US Federal Reserve officially launched a rate cut cycle, lowering the federal benchmark interest rate by 2 points to 4.75%~5% in one go, and expects the benchmark interest rate to fall by another 0.5% by the end of this year. Yesterday, stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies all performed well driven by the capital market. According to The Block, Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said that regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election in November, macroeconomic factors will drive digital asset prices higher. After the FOMC meeting, digital assets took the lead in performance for the first time in a while. Although today Polymarket shows that Kamala Harris leads Trump 52/47. Kendrick attributed this positive performance to macroeconomic drivers beginning to outweigh election-related uncertainties. Observing the yield curve and Bitcoin ETF flow Although the US election is important, macroeconomic drivers have begun to dominate. Kendrick is monitoring the difference between short-term and long-term US Treasury yields as an indicator of market conditions that are favorable to digital assets. I observe the US 2s10s curve, and the steep US yield curve is favorable for digital assets. Since July 2022, the spread between the two Treasury yields has been negative (that is, the yield on short-term bonds is higher than the yield on long-term bonds, which is called "inversion"). The market believes that this means that a recession is coming. However, the spread began to turn positive again in late August. And investment in Bitcoin spot ETFs may also increase support for Bitcoin prices. Bitcoin will hit a new high before the end of the yearKendrick reiterated his previous prediction that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high before the end of this year, with a potential target of $125,000 if Trump wins and $75,000 if Harris wins. #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #CATI价格预测 #加密市场反弹