Don't be stupid, everyone. If the bull market ends now, it will at most result in a double bottom. Do you want to bet on this scenario? Even if it is, it will only be cut in half, and in the short term, the whole world will know that if it goes on again, it will definitely be a hit, and Hodl will not sell it, so it must be deceived to a higher place, and only those who buy it will be heartbroken enough to sell it.
That is to say, the script will not be the same, every cycle is different.
Several scripts that are more reasonable in the long term:
First, we can judge some almost certain things from the long-term RSI
Q2 2026 will be a big bear market from April to June.
Use this to extrapolate some possible scenarios now.
1. Next, it will break a new high and make a top of 80,000 in December. If the backtest does not reach 30,000, it may go back to 47,000 and then go higher, which means that one day it will still have to backtest 30,000.
That is, after the backtest at the beginning of the year, it will continue to climb to 170,000 in mid-2025 (this can be judged by the Rsi of more than 1 month), and then fall by 80% in the bear market. If 170,000 falls by about 80%, it will probably return to more than 20,000. .
2. Slowly reaching the top of 80,000, and then it will be hovering in this range from now to the beginning of next year, and then it will go down as it goes up. It will take us one year to climb up to 70,000, and it will take one year to get back to 20,000 in mid-2025 to make double. The bottom will begin in 2026 and a new cycle will begin until the next halving breaks to a new high.
The great bull market is not over yet, and it will be easy to tell when it does.