According to a recent analysis by analyst firm IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin's historical cycles indicate that the cryptocurrency could see a solid rally in 2025. U.Today writes about it.
According to IntoTheBlock, the historical average length of time between a Bitcoin halving and the next peak is about 480 days. According to this model, the next expected peak will be in the summer of 2025.
Bitcoin halving events (this term is mentioned in the Bitcoin code and refers to the reduction of the reward that miners receive. The halving happens every 210,000 transaction blocks - approximately once every four years - "Glavcom"), which occur once every four years, reduce the reward for mining new blocks twice. The last Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024 at a block height of 840,000. The Bitcoin block reward was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This has historically resulted in significant price increases, as a reduction in the supply of new bitcoins in the market often leads to an increase in demand.
In the current cycle, the price of Bitcoin is down almost 12% from its halving price of $63,900. While this decline may seem disconcerting in the short term, it is not unprecedented. Past cycles have also seen periods of consolidation or minor declines as the market builds momentum for a major rally.
The current market behavior suggests a period of accumulation where investors may be preparing for a sharp rise in prices. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is down 0.26% in the last 24 hours to $54,398.
Since the beginning of the month, the price of bitcoin has fallen 8%, exceeding the decade average decline of 5%. However, a drop in September is often followed by an increase. Bitcoin often goes up in October. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 5% drop in September, an average rise of 22% in October, and 46% in November.
By the way, the authorities of four countries are capable of collapsing the bitcoin exchange rate, and Ukraine is among them. According to Kaiko experts, the authorities of the USA, China, Great Britain and Ukraine may start selling off their Bitcoin reserves in September. Due to this, the exchange rate of the first cryptocurrency can approach the mark of $53 thousand.
