Let me discuss my views on $ETH and the market as a whole from the perspective of the Ethereum to Bitcoin currency pair
I will not make any predictions about the market, but will only analyze and share my views on the information expressed by the current candlestick chart:
The capital transmission in the crypto market is from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to other high-quality projects and altcoins. At the same time, because the market value of altcoins is not as good as Bitcoin, altcoins are more volatile than Bitcoin. Other altcoins are not considered for the time being, only Ethereum is considered (in fact, Ethereum is also an altcoin, but it is the largest altcoin). From the perspective of capital transmission, the so-called bull market is that after the funds enter BTC, because altcoins have more speculative value, that is, they can be speculated higher in price, the participants in the crypto market will exchange their BTC for ETH in the form of currency pairs in order to seek a greater price increase. When the long participants of ETH are no longer willing to buy or there are no new participants in the market who continue to buy ETH, the price will not hit a new high. In this process, there is an important link: BTC holders exchange BTC for ETH. From the perspective of currency pairs and price trends, it is the rise of the ETHBTC currency pair, the decline of Bitcoin's market share, the sideways movement of BTC prices and the rise of altcoin (ETH) prices. In the end, there is no continuous buying force to push the price of altcoins upward, funds are withdrawn, and the bull market ends.
If you agree with the above logic, here are some of my thoughts on the current crypto market. According to the above logic, the bull market should see a continuous rise in the exchange rate of ETH to BTC, but since September 22, the ETH exchange rate has continued to weaken. My personal opinion is that the bull market for altcoins has not arrived at all, but it is just a rebound in the process of decline. It can also be seen from the weekly line of ETH that the price of ETH has continued to fall since December 21, and this rise has not set a new high. If it is a normal upward trend, it should set a new high after adjustment (whether it is the inflated price of ETH caused by the mining boom a few years ago or the interest rate hike, in any case, the price has not set a new high). Although I still adhere to the long-term bull market view of the crypto market (from the monthly line, the bull trend is still healthy), I think it is just a large-cycle adjustment at present, or this round of rise is just a rebound from the decline, which is still an adjustment. The real bull market should be completed after multiple interest rate cuts, and the deposit and loan interest rates will be reduced, which is a real benefit for funds. The current series of data is just speculation on expectations, including non-agricultural employment data, CPI data, unemployment rate data, etc., which are all speculation on the expectation of interest rate cuts. At least so far, there has been no real interest rate cut, and there has been no substantial benefit to the crypto market, that is, no money from the traditional market has flowed into the crypto market (whether for risk aversion or speculation). Everyone knows that interest rate cuts are good, but is it good now? So far, there has been no interest rate cut; another thought: Is it good before the interest rate cut? Is the first interest rate cut good? Is the end of the interest rate cut good? What we know is that the Fed's interest rate was still high (5.5%) before the interest rate cut. The first interest rate cut may not necessarily be a good thing, but there will definitely be drastic fluctuations, because cash needs to flow from banks to the market, but interest rates are still high. For speculators, the first interest rate cut may not be a time worth entering the market, but it is certain that after multiple rounds of interest rate cuts are completed, such as the interest rate is reduced to 0.25%, funds will definitely enter the crypto market for various reasons. Therefore, only when the interest rate cut is completed can it be said to be good, and only when the interest rate cut is completed can it be a real bull market.
In the short term, the ETHBTC exchange rate has been in a downward channel, and a price squeeze is currently forming at the bottom of the channel. In the short term, Ethereum will have a rebound. I don't know how much, but it will be about 10% or more in the exchange rate pair, and the exchange rate will probably reach 0.046. Ethereum's bull market will have to wait until the exchange rate breaks through the trend line and the horizontal high (currently about 0.056, if a new high appears in the channel, it will be considered separately). In the short term, if ETH does not have a relatively obvious and standard trend, it is not recommended to operate on Ethereum. In the spot market, because November 7 is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and at the same time, November 5 is the US election, and November 8 is the delivery date of large options, there will be violent fluctuations in early November. The plunge before and after the election will be a buying opportunity, but it is still not a buying opportunity for spot. On the left side, I personally recommend a light position at around 32,000-38,000. Note that because it is on the left side, the position must be light. The price of Bitcoin has been verified in the Vegas tunnel of the 10-day line, which is an indicator that can be referenced; the price of Ethereum is about 1,600-1,800. Once again, the position on the left side should not be too large. It is best to wait for the signal to appear on the right side before entering.
Additional edit: At present, the crypto market is not optimistic. From the perspective of the US dollar index, the US dollar index has continued to fall since August 1st. As the US dollar index falls, the purchasing power of the US dollar decreases. Commodities denominated in US dollars usually rise, but since August 1st, we can also see that the price of Bitcoin has not risen, and has even fallen. I personally think that the current support for the BTC price at 56,000 is basically supported by the decline of the US dollar index. I am not optimistic about the subsequent market. This price is also neither up nor down. For Bitcoin, it is neither long nor short. It is recommended that you enrich your real life or read more books to learn trading techniques during this period.
If the above views can help you in your trading, then that is the meaning of my writing this article. If you have other ideas, please share your views in the comment area $BTC #美国8月CPI数据高于预期 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？
