Economic calendar of events from September 9-15 that could impact the crypto market.
There are two key days: Wednesday and Thursday. On the first day, US consumer inflation will be published. On the second day, US manufacturing inflation + traditional unemployment benefit data + US Federal Reserve balance sheet data and federal budget execution data. There is also a lot of data from major global economies (Great Britain, Japan, China) this week, which may prove important in the long run. But the markets will not be given any volatility at the moment.
Outside the scope of macroeconomics, but important: - two events that could cause a surge in volatility in the crypto market: the traditional September presentation of#Appletoday at 20:00 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 22:00 Astana time (could greatly affect the stock market, with which the crypto market currently has a noticeable correlation) and the Trump-Harris debate in the US on September 11 at 04:00 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 06:00 Astana time.
Key points on macroeconomics:
Monday, September 9:
Japan's GDP data came out last night, and it was slightly worse than expected. Despite the "Black Swan" that the country brought to stock markets in August, this is not a reason to worry. For now, it's just a reason to keep a closer eye on their data.
Also by morning, data on consumer and production inflation in China was released. They turned out to be lower than forecasts. In China, at least officially, the issue of inflation is not as acute as in Western countries. Here, as you can see, there is a risk of another problem - deflation. Consumer inflation data indicate weakening domestic demand, which may signal a slowdown in economic activity in the country. Production inflation data indicate a decrease in demand for products within the country and a decrease in global prices for raw materials. We continue to keep China in focus due to its role in the global economy. But until a financial "bridge" appears between mainland China and Hong Kong's crypto ETF, this data is indirectly important. Cryptocurrencies in China need to be "unbanned", but despite rumors, there are no real announcements yet.
Tuesday, September 10:
- 06:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 08:00 Astana time - China's export and import volume for August. Trade balance.
- 09:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 11:00 Astana time - UK Labour Market Data Pool: Jobless Claims Change, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate. Important because of the role of the pound sterling in the calculation of the US Dollar Index DXY and because of the role of the UK in the global economy.
- 17:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 19:00 Astana time - Speech by US Federal Reserve member, Deputy Chairman for Supervision Barr (permanent chairman).
Wednesday, September 11:
- 09:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 11:00 Astana time - UK economic data pool: GDP for July, Industrial production volume, Trade balance.
❗️- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time - Core Consumer Price Index and Consumer Price Index in the US. Consumer inflation is the key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve in interest rate decisions.
Thursday, September 12:
- 09:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 11:00 Astana time - Swedish Consumer Price Index for August. Important due to the role of the Swedish krona in the DXY calculation.
- 15:15 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:15 Astana time - European Central Bank interest rate decision. ECB statement on monetary policy. Important due to: the role of the euro in calculating DXY, the risks of recession in the eurozone, the market perception of the decision as a possible "spoiler" for the US Federal Reserve decision. Consensus forecast - a decrease of 0.6 percentage points at once.
❗️- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time - Weekly number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US. The labor market is important for the US Federal Reserve's actions on interest rates and for assessing the risks of a recession.
❗️- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time - Core Producer Price Index and Producer Price Index in the US for August. Producer Inflation. Leading indicator of consumer inflation for September.
- 15:45 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:45 Astana time - Press conference of the European Central Bank.
- 17:15 Kyiv and Moscow time / 19:15 Astana time - ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech.
- 21:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 23:00 Astana time - US Federal Budget Execution Report (August).
❗️- 23:30 Kyiv time and Moscow time / 01:30 new day Astana time - US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet. The decline has been ongoing in recent months, so far there is no reason to expect positive news for the markets here.
Friday, September 13:
- 17:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 19:00 Astana time - Expected inflation in the US for September from the University of Michigan, Consumer inflation expectations index in the US for 5 years ahead from the University of Michigan, Consumer expectations and sentiment indices from the University of Michigan. In recent months, only once did this data cause a surge in volatility in the crypto market. But it did, so it's worth keeping in mind.
Saturday, September 14:
- 05:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 07:00 Astana time - Pool of data on the Chinese economy: Investments in fixed assets, Industrial production volume, Unemployment rate in China, Press conference of the National Bureau of Statistics.